Who is Still Alive: Week 8

Remarkably, Notre Dame loses and they still stay in the hunt. That's because they took FSU down to 13 seconds and had the game ripped out of their hands by a controversial call. And if the Irish run the table they look like they could still snag a spot. The options of them running the table now and not getting in depend on a couple things. If FSU stops winning those close games and starts losing them, then Notre Dame's loss will look all the worse. Then if Oregon runs the table, wins the Pac-12 and looks amazing doing it, alongside a TCU or Baylor as the champ of the Big-12 and either looking amazing doing it, or if Ohio State/Michigan State keeps silently looking good and wins the Big-10....then Notre Dame is up against 3 One-Loss Conference Champions (two of which would also have won an extra game in their conference championship). Then also, if Florida State loses a game but wins the ACC then that would be 4 One-Loss Conference Champions. The other option is the SEC having two teams in the playoff, that's one less Conference Champ to let in.

Back to the Big 12. It's a little bit of a mess now, thanks to Oklahoma losing. The Sooners are out. Two losses in the Big 12 is a deal-breaker, with the quality of teams around the country and the number of 1 loss teams left, they're out for the Playoff. If they win the Big 12 that would mean K-State and TCU would need to lose 3 times and Baylor lose to Oklahoma. Oklahoma still could get into one of the Big Bowls, but even that seems less likely now. Baylor's Playoff hopes now hang by a thread. They're still in the Second Tier because there is potentially a very outside chance they get back in. They'd have to win out and look good and gets lots of help from Conference Champions having more than one loss and the SEC eating itself alive with the SEC West's non-winner having lots of losses.

As it stands now, here's what seems like the most likely outcome for the 4 teams.
Florida State wins the ACC and is undefeated. Louisville could be a tricky game because they're in transition, have talent and have the ability to pick off a better team, if that team is overlooking them.
Either Ole Miss or Mississippi State is in. They both get to the Egg Bowl undefeated then the winner goes on to win the SEC.
Oregon gets better and better looking as they get back to healthy. They destroy the South counterpart(whether it's ASU, USC or UCLA again), and look like the 2nd best Conference Champion.
TCU keeps winning and wins the Big 12. They get in as a conference champion and because of their great defense. This 4th spot will be the controversial one, because either Ohio State or Michigan State could be a 1 loss champion and is left out.

Left Out
Ohio State/Michigan State - Either of these teams will probably have the most legitimate claim(if they don't lose another game) But Ohio State has that awful loss to Virgina Tech, and Oregon beat MSU
Alabama/Auburn/Loser of the Egg Bowl - one of these teams will have a legitimate complaint, but the Conference Champions will look so much better by year's end
Notre Dame - They could be the first team out, losing out to Conference Champions
Marshall - just not enough of a quality schedule, even going undefeated


Teams Left Alive
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Florida State
Notre Dame


Teams With A Chance
TCU
Kansas State
Baylor
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still Alive: Week 7

Huge Changes! Huge, but foreseeable. Mississippi State has looked like the number one team since beating LSU. Their consistency just proves it.

A few teams fall off, but not much. UCLA is basically out. Even if they come back and win the whole Pac-12 it seems very unlikely they'd still get a spot. The Pac-12 would look vert weak if UCLA won it. That being said, Arizona hangs on by a thread. If they won out and won the Pac-12 there could be some chance they get in.

The Big 12 is a little more muddled. Baylor is a lock if they win the Big 12. But then there's three teams with a chance left, including Kansas State (who would have a good chance with winning out). Oklahoma is still a great team, but would need to look good the rest of the year winning out, including beating Baylor. TCU still looked good after it's loss to the Baylor, but now needs help from Oklahoma losing again and Baylor losing at least once, but more likely twice. If OU beats Baylor, it would be a three way mess for the committee to figure out. Also, Kansas State plays the Sooners this week, that game could have an impact later on because Baylor goes to Manhattan, Kansas at the end of the season.

Then there's the ACC. Florida State is now the ACC's one shot to get into the playoff. It seems pretty likely that they're going to win it. But they have Notre Dame looming this week in what could be a Semi-Final match. If Notre Dame loses they are most likely out. If Florida State loses they will be holding on by a thread hoping for some help from other conferences.

The SEC is looking clearer and clearer. The season is far from over and both Mississippi schools still have tough games to play. The Bulldogs still have Alabama and a rising Arkansas team. And while we're at it, Kentucky has already played spoiler once, look for them to do it again.
Then of course Ole Miss and Mississippi State still play each other at the end of the year. Ole Miss also still has Auburn and Arkansas, not mention LSU. All of those games seem manageable, but there is always room for a down week.

Look for some more craziness because of the teams left undefeated in the Power 5, only Baylor doesn't play anyone else there. FSU and Notre Dame this week and Ole Miss-MSU at the end of the year. If Notre Dame pulls out a squeker and FSU still looks good, there is a scenario where two Power 5 Conferences are left out with Notre Dame taking a spot. Then imagine if the ND-FSU game happened that way and the the Egg Bowl is a squeaker and the winner then wins the SEC...and if Baylor loses bad....imagine Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Miss State and Florida State being in the playoff. Only TWO Power 5 Conferences would be represented! Unlikely, but possible.


Teams Left Alive
Florida State
Baylor
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Mississippi State

Teams With an Outside Chance
Oklahoma
TCU
Kansas State
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still in The Playoff: Week 6

Major Shakeups across the country in almost ever conference. The only two conferences without a chaotic change were the Big 10, where Michigan State held off Nebraska to stay atop, and the ACC where Florida State still leads the way. FSU did look shaky to start, but then breezed by Wake Forest for most of the game.

As doom and gloom as it might seem for the Pac-12, the season isn't over yet. Both UCLA and Oregon have clear flaws, but they also have enough talent to work through their issues. Both teams move down a tier because as is, they're slightly on the outside looking in. They're going to have to play great to get back in. Arizona, though, actually looks like a new team and the front-runner now, a wild turn of events. If they run the table they're probably in the Playoff.

It might feel like chaos as well in the SEC, especially outside the state of Mississippi, but it could calm there too. Texas A&M is probably the least likely teams left on the lower tier to be able to get in the Playoff now. Their schedule is still crazy and their flaws have shown up. And, their signature win against South Carolina now isn't so shiny as the Gamecocks just lost to Kentucky. In reality, Marshall is the team with the least likely chance because even if they win out, they are so far down the rankings compared to so many teams they need a huge heap of help from a lot of teams losing.
Alabama is a team that could really easily bounce back into the conversation by just doing they what they do. Ole Miss didn't blow them out, and for a lot of the game Bama looked like the better team. They have some weaknesses but their strengths usually outweigh them. It will be an uphill climb, though, they still face Texas A&M, Miss State, and of course Auburn. (Not to mention an upstart Arkansas and an LSU team that's struggling but still talented.)

In the BIG 12 the race looks pretty interesting. Oklahoma is still in contention because if they win out they're still in the conversation. If they win out they will have beaten Baylor, knocking them down a notch and they weren't blown out by TCU. The reason they didn't drop out of the top tier is because it's all mostly still in their hands, if they win out they'll be in the Playoff. It might get interesting, though, if TCU beats Baylor and wins out, then there might be some turmoil.

Then there's Notre Dame. This could be a year very similar to their last National Championship appearance. Just winning enough each week to get by. Although, now they have Florida State on their schedule as the number one team in the country. Let's hope the Selection Committee looks at that as a Semi-Final game, the loser being eliminated from the conversation.

Teams Left Alive

Florida State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Notre Dame

Ole Miss

Mississippi State

Auburn

Arizona

Teams With an Outside Chance

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Oregon

UCLA

Kansas State

Georgia

Alabama

Texas A&M

Florida

Georgia Tech

Where hasn't College Game Day Been?

Hard to believe that College Game Day is at Ole Miss for the first time. It was one of only two spots CGD has missed in the SEC. Where is the other place? Not too far up the road.....Mississippi State.

Here's the other places they have yet to set up shop in the Power 5 Conferences. It's clear to see why teams on the list remain. They're the usual bottom feeders in their conference. For most of these colleges it will probably be a while till College Game Day shows up on campus.

ACC
Wake Forest
Virginia
Duke
Syracuse
Louisville

Big Ten
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Minnesota

Big 12
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor

Pac-12
Cal
Washington State

SEC
Mississippi State


Here's probably the most likely teams CGD could get to the rest of the season:

Miss State - with a win over LSU already and a contender in the SEC West, this seems like the year for CGD to visit Starkville. Maybe next week when Auburn comes to town or on Nov 1 when the host Arkansas.

Baylor - Brand new stadium doesn't hurt their chances, especially the way they're playing. Next week with TCU coming could be a possibility or Nov 22 when Oklahoma State arrives in Waco when maybe both teams will be ranked. Also Nov 29 when Texas Tech comes or an outside chance on Dec 6 when Kansas State visits and there could be championship implications, although with so many championship games that week it is a long shot.

Minnesota - If the Gophers keep winning in the Big Ten, there could be a chance CGD visits toward the end of the year when they host Iowa and Ohio State.

Who is Still in the Playoff: Week 5

A few close games this last week that really could have had an impact. But what ended up happening was the teams likely not to last on this last lost. The two biggest being Penn State, which drops totally out of the running and Arizona State. If they were to come back and win their conference it still is unforeseeable that they'd get a place in the CFB Playoff. Also dropping down was NC State. However they stay on the 2nd Tier list because they had Florida State close to the end, and if they came back and won out, looked good while doing it and won the ACC, it's possible they still could get a spot. (With some 2 loss help from others.) This week we'll see at least a couple teams drop out as the SEC West will eat itself alive this weekend. Ole Miss and Alabama face off. Then Auburn and LSU. And Texas A&M and Mississippi State. If either of the Mississippi schools lose, they're pretty much out unless the games are really tight. Texas A&M and Alabama really look like they're going to propel themselves forward with solid wins.
Then in the Pac-12 Oregon and Arizona play. If Oregon loses they'll drop to the 2nd tier, but if Arizona loses, they're all out. Stanford also takes on Notre Dame. This is probably an elimination game for both teams. Stanford with two losses seems extremely unlikely to still secure a spot with a Conference Championship and Notre Dame, without that option seems like it would need a perfect record to secure a spot.
Then in the Big 12 Oklahoma faces TCU. Same scenario, Oklahoma would still stay in with a loss, but TCU would be out.
In the Big 10, that conferences only hopes for a spot go head to head. Nebraska versus Michigan State. Either team would be potentially out with a loss. If it's a close loss, Nebraska could still hold out a tiny chance, with a flawless rest of the season that looks amazing and tons of help from other conferences. This is the game of the year right now for the Big 10.

It's a HUGE weekend in college football.


Teams Left Alive

Florida State
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Nebraska
BYU
Notre Dame
Oregon
UCLA
Ole Miss
Auburn
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Alabama

Teams with an Outside Chance

NC State
Georgia Tech
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Stanford
Arizona
USC
Georgia
LSU
Florida
Kansas State

Who is Still Alive for the Playoff: Week 4

A few teams moved from the Still Alive column to An Outside Chance column. A couple teams bounced right out, like Missouri and Pittsburgh. Even if they go on to win their conference there would be so many more deserving teams and if Pitt wins the ACC it would be a lock that the ACC would be left out of the Playoff.

Teams Left Alive

All undefeated teams either Independent or from the Power 5 Conferences. They stand atop their conferences meaning if they win their championship they would have a place. NC State is probably the most unlikely team left but because they haven't been tested much, it's hard to tell. Arizona State and TCU are next and will probably fall out completely with a loss. BYU obviously would be totally out with a loss and are still straddling the line between this column and the Outside Chance column.

Florida State

NC State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Penn State

Nebraska

BYU

Notre Dame

Oregon

Arizona State

UCLA

Ole Miss

Auburn

Texas A&M

Miss State

Alabama

Teams with an Outside Chance

Marshall and Cincinnatti are the only teams left undefeated and not from a Power 5. Some of these teams are still undefeated but sit in the lower rungs of their conference and would need to win out and win their championship to have any hope. Duke Georgia Tech from the ACC would still have to hope that there would be some 1-loss conference champions. The same goes for Arizona, Utah, Washington and Oregon State, all undefeated from the Pac-12. They would really need to look good and hope for some help from 1-loss conference champions. The rest of these teams are the 1-loss power teams from the Power 5 that could win the rest of their schedule and conference then hope for a shake at the top. A few of these teams are just barely holding on here by a string, like USC, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas State

and the Big 10 teams (Ohio State and Michigan State), all 1 loss teams that would need a lot of help.

Cincinnati

Georgia Tech

Duke

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Washington

Oregon State

Stanford

Utah

Arizona

USC

South Carolina

Georgia

LSU

Florida

Kansas State

Teams Left Alive for the Playoff - Week 3

Teams Left Alive for the College Football Playoff

These are all the Power 5(and Independent) Teams still undefeated. The SEC has the most with 8. The Big 12 has 4.


Florida State
NC State
Pittsburgh
Kansas State
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Penn State
Nebraska
BYU
Notre Dame
Oregon
Arizona State
UCLA
Florida
Missouri
Ole Miss
Auburn
Texas A&M
Miss State
Alabama
LSU

Teams with an Outside Chance

These are undefeated teams either from lesser conferences or undefeated teams from the bottom half of the Power 5 that will need a lot of help. Or some of the Power 5 teams with one loss that could still come back and rise up the rankings and also win their conferences with only 1 loss.

Cincinnati
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Duke
North Carolina
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Northern Illinois
Cal
Washington
Oregon State
Stanford
Utah
Arizona
USC
South Carolina
Georgia
Arkansas

Shake-Up Saturday Top 25

Given the seismic shift last Saturday, I thought I'd totally start from scratch and fill in what I think is the Top 25. From what I could see of Florida State's dominance, they look better than Alabama all around. Oregon is still the best team in the country, but not by much. It's basically a 3 way tie for first in my mind. Then you have the other un-beatens and back to a Stanford team that was so dominant over a really good Bruin team. And how about that Baylor offense...and their defense?

Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. LSU
10. Louisville
11. Texas Tech
12. Clemson
13. UCLA
14. Texas A&M
15. Fresno State
16. Auburn
17. South Carolina
18. Northern Illinois
19. Wisconsin
20. Oklahoma
21. Oklahoma State
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan

Upsets of the Week

This was a very hard week to make picks, the season is getting into high gear and most of the powderpuff games are over....which means conference play is upon us. I have several conference game upsets picked for this week.

In the Big Ten I'm picking Indiana over Michigan State. The Spartans have not wowed me at all this year and they don't seem to be up to snuff in the weak Big 10. Also, I think Indiana is just really overdue for a big upset, and the way they're putting up stats, this could be the week.
Indiana 31 Michigan State 17

In the Pac-12, I have Oregon State over Washington State. I think this will be a very close game, I'm surprised the Cougars are the favorites, but the edge probably went to the home team. Both teams are doing great things on offense, but I think the Beavers have enough defense to stop Wazzu.
Oregon State 35 Washington State 33

Another Big Ten game, I'm picking Northwestern over Wisconsin. I think this one will be close also and could come down to the final drive, maybe even with Northwestern scoring a last second field goal or something. I just don't think Wisconsin is there yet, and Northwestern is a really strong team that will bounce back from the close lose last week to Ohio State.
Northwestern 24 Wisconsin 23

Down in the SEC, my huge big upset of the week. A team I was questioning why they were even ranked at all versus what is one of the best teams in the nation and a real National title hopeful. That's right....I'm picking the Tigers of Missouri over the Bulldogs of Georgia, the team I picked before the season started to win it all. Mainly it's because of all the injuries in the Bulldogs offense. Aaron Murray can't carry the whole team all alone, and Georgia's defense might not be able to handle the pace of Missouri, which is putting up outstanding numbers. This could be close, and Missouri will have to play lights out and flawless, but I think they'll pull it out.
Missouri 41 Georgia 31