Who is Still Alive: Week 8

Remarkably, Notre Dame loses and they still stay in the hunt. That's because they took FSU down to 13 seconds and had the game ripped out of their hands by a controversial call. And if the Irish run the table they look like they could still snag a spot. The options of them running the table now and not getting in depend on a couple things. If FSU stops winning those close games and starts losing them, then Notre Dame's loss will look all the worse. Then if Oregon runs the table, wins the Pac-12 and looks amazing doing it, alongside a TCU or Baylor as the champ of the Big-12 and either looking amazing doing it, or if Ohio State/Michigan State keeps silently looking good and wins the Big-10....then Notre Dame is up against 3 One-Loss Conference Champions (two of which would also have won an extra game in their conference championship). Then also, if Florida State loses a game but wins the ACC then that would be 4 One-Loss Conference Champions. The other option is the SEC having two teams in the playoff, that's one less Conference Champ to let in.

Back to the Big 12. It's a little bit of a mess now, thanks to Oklahoma losing. The Sooners are out. Two losses in the Big 12 is a deal-breaker, with the quality of teams around the country and the number of 1 loss teams left, they're out for the Playoff. If they win the Big 12 that would mean K-State and TCU would need to lose 3 times and Baylor lose to Oklahoma. Oklahoma still could get into one of the Big Bowls, but even that seems less likely now. Baylor's Playoff hopes now hang by a thread. They're still in the Second Tier because there is potentially a very outside chance they get back in. They'd have to win out and look good and gets lots of help from Conference Champions having more than one loss and the SEC eating itself alive with the SEC West's non-winner having lots of losses.

As it stands now, here's what seems like the most likely outcome for the 4 teams.
Florida State wins the ACC and is undefeated. Louisville could be a tricky game because they're in transition, have talent and have the ability to pick off a better team, if that team is overlooking them.
Either Ole Miss or Mississippi State is in. They both get to the Egg Bowl undefeated then the winner goes on to win the SEC.
Oregon gets better and better looking as they get back to healthy. They destroy the South counterpart(whether it's ASU, USC or UCLA again), and look like the 2nd best Conference Champion.
TCU keeps winning and wins the Big 12. They get in as a conference champion and because of their great defense. This 4th spot will be the controversial one, because either Ohio State or Michigan State could be a 1 loss champion and is left out.

Left Out
Ohio State/Michigan State - Either of these teams will probably have the most legitimate claim(if they don't lose another game) But Ohio State has that awful loss to Virgina Tech, and Oregon beat MSU
Alabama/Auburn/Loser of the Egg Bowl - one of these teams will have a legitimate complaint, but the Conference Champions will look so much better by year's end
Notre Dame - They could be the first team out, losing out to Conference Champions
Marshall - just not enough of a quality schedule, even going undefeated


Teams Left Alive
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Florida State
Notre Dame


Teams With A Chance
TCU
Kansas State
Baylor
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still Alive: Week 7

Huge Changes! Huge, but foreseeable. Mississippi State has looked like the number one team since beating LSU. Their consistency just proves it.

A few teams fall off, but not much. UCLA is basically out. Even if they come back and win the whole Pac-12 it seems very unlikely they'd still get a spot. The Pac-12 would look vert weak if UCLA won it. That being said, Arizona hangs on by a thread. If they won out and won the Pac-12 there could be some chance they get in.

The Big 12 is a little more muddled. Baylor is a lock if they win the Big 12. But then there's three teams with a chance left, including Kansas State (who would have a good chance with winning out). Oklahoma is still a great team, but would need to look good the rest of the year winning out, including beating Baylor. TCU still looked good after it's loss to the Baylor, but now needs help from Oklahoma losing again and Baylor losing at least once, but more likely twice. If OU beats Baylor, it would be a three way mess for the committee to figure out. Also, Kansas State plays the Sooners this week, that game could have an impact later on because Baylor goes to Manhattan, Kansas at the end of the season.

Then there's the ACC. Florida State is now the ACC's one shot to get into the playoff. It seems pretty likely that they're going to win it. But they have Notre Dame looming this week in what could be a Semi-Final match. If Notre Dame loses they are most likely out. If Florida State loses they will be holding on by a thread hoping for some help from other conferences.

The SEC is looking clearer and clearer. The season is far from over and both Mississippi schools still have tough games to play. The Bulldogs still have Alabama and a rising Arkansas team. And while we're at it, Kentucky has already played spoiler once, look for them to do it again.
Then of course Ole Miss and Mississippi State still play each other at the end of the year. Ole Miss also still has Auburn and Arkansas, not mention LSU. All of those games seem manageable, but there is always room for a down week.

Look for some more craziness because of the teams left undefeated in the Power 5, only Baylor doesn't play anyone else there. FSU and Notre Dame this week and Ole Miss-MSU at the end of the year. If Notre Dame pulls out a squeker and FSU still looks good, there is a scenario where two Power 5 Conferences are left out with Notre Dame taking a spot. Then imagine if the ND-FSU game happened that way and the the Egg Bowl is a squeaker and the winner then wins the SEC...and if Baylor loses bad....imagine Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Miss State and Florida State being in the playoff. Only TWO Power 5 Conferences would be represented! Unlikely, but possible.


Teams Left Alive
Florida State
Baylor
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Mississippi State

Teams With an Outside Chance
Oklahoma
TCU
Kansas State
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still in The Playoff: Week 6

Major Shakeups across the country in almost ever conference. The only two conferences without a chaotic change were the Big 10, where Michigan State held off Nebraska to stay atop, and the ACC where Florida State still leads the way. FSU did look shaky to start, but then breezed by Wake Forest for most of the game.

As doom and gloom as it might seem for the Pac-12, the season isn't over yet. Both UCLA and Oregon have clear flaws, but they also have enough talent to work through their issues. Both teams move down a tier because as is, they're slightly on the outside looking in. They're going to have to play great to get back in. Arizona, though, actually looks like a new team and the front-runner now, a wild turn of events. If they run the table they're probably in the Playoff.

It might feel like chaos as well in the SEC, especially outside the state of Mississippi, but it could calm there too. Texas A&M is probably the least likely teams left on the lower tier to be able to get in the Playoff now. Their schedule is still crazy and their flaws have shown up. And, their signature win against South Carolina now isn't so shiny as the Gamecocks just lost to Kentucky. In reality, Marshall is the team with the least likely chance because even if they win out, they are so far down the rankings compared to so many teams they need a huge heap of help from a lot of teams losing.
Alabama is a team that could really easily bounce back into the conversation by just doing they what they do. Ole Miss didn't blow them out, and for a lot of the game Bama looked like the better team. They have some weaknesses but their strengths usually outweigh them. It will be an uphill climb, though, they still face Texas A&M, Miss State, and of course Auburn. (Not to mention an upstart Arkansas and an LSU team that's struggling but still talented.)

In the BIG 12 the race looks pretty interesting. Oklahoma is still in contention because if they win out they're still in the conversation. If they win out they will have beaten Baylor, knocking them down a notch and they weren't blown out by TCU. The reason they didn't drop out of the top tier is because it's all mostly still in their hands, if they win out they'll be in the Playoff. It might get interesting, though, if TCU beats Baylor and wins out, then there might be some turmoil.

Then there's Notre Dame. This could be a year very similar to their last National Championship appearance. Just winning enough each week to get by. Although, now they have Florida State on their schedule as the number one team in the country. Let's hope the Selection Committee looks at that as a Semi-Final game, the loser being eliminated from the conversation.

Teams Left Alive

Florida State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Notre Dame

Ole Miss

Mississippi State

Auburn

Arizona

Teams With an Outside Chance

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Oregon

UCLA

Kansas State

Georgia

Alabama

Texas A&M

Florida

Georgia Tech

Where hasn't College Game Day Been?

Hard to believe that College Game Day is at Ole Miss for the first time. It was one of only two spots CGD has missed in the SEC. Where is the other place? Not too far up the road.....Mississippi State.

Here's the other places they have yet to set up shop in the Power 5 Conferences. It's clear to see why teams on the list remain. They're the usual bottom feeders in their conference. For most of these colleges it will probably be a while till College Game Day shows up on campus.

ACC
Wake Forest
Virginia
Duke
Syracuse
Louisville

Big Ten
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Minnesota

Big 12
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor

Pac-12
Cal
Washington State

SEC
Mississippi State


Here's probably the most likely teams CGD could get to the rest of the season:

Miss State - with a win over LSU already and a contender in the SEC West, this seems like the year for CGD to visit Starkville. Maybe next week when Auburn comes to town or on Nov 1 when the host Arkansas.

Baylor - Brand new stadium doesn't hurt their chances, especially the way they're playing. Next week with TCU coming could be a possibility or Nov 22 when Oklahoma State arrives in Waco when maybe both teams will be ranked. Also Nov 29 when Texas Tech comes or an outside chance on Dec 6 when Kansas State visits and there could be championship implications, although with so many championship games that week it is a long shot.

Minnesota - If the Gophers keep winning in the Big Ten, there could be a chance CGD visits toward the end of the year when they host Iowa and Ohio State.

Shake-Up Saturday Top 25

Given the seismic shift last Saturday, I thought I'd totally start from scratch and fill in what I think is the Top 25. From what I could see of Florida State's dominance, they look better than Alabama all around. Oregon is still the best team in the country, but not by much. It's basically a 3 way tie for first in my mind. Then you have the other un-beatens and back to a Stanford team that was so dominant over a really good Bruin team. And how about that Baylor offense...and their defense?

Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. LSU
10. Louisville
11. Texas Tech
12. Clemson
13. UCLA
14. Texas A&M
15. Fresno State
16. Auburn
17. South Carolina
18. Northern Illinois
19. Wisconsin
20. Oklahoma
21. Oklahoma State
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan

Predicting the Season - Mountain West

It may be a tad early, or not, to make some predictions about the coming football season, but here goes.
Starting with the Mountain West, here's how I see the season playing out, team for team.

UNLV                 1-10 (0-8)

Minnesota             L

Arizona                 L

Cent Michigan      L

W Illinois              W

New Mexico          L

Hawaii                   L

Fresno St                L

Nevada                   L

San Jose St              L

Air Force                 L

SDSU                     L

These guys are going to suck again. Bobby Hauck will be let go and someone else can take over the dumpster fire.

Hawaii                      2-10 (1-7)

USC                         L

Oregon St                 L

Nevada                      L

Fresno St                    L

San Jose St                 L

UNLV                       W

Colorado St                L

Utah St                        L

Navy                           L

SDSU                         L

Wyoming                    L

Army                          W

Although they might be better this year, I don't know how many wins they'll put out. Last year the Warriors were never competitive, and I can't see them making any giant leap forward.

San Jose State       6-6(4-4)

Sac State          W

Stanford            L

Minnesota         L

Utah State         L

Hawaii              W

Colorado St       W

Wyoming          W

UNLV               W

SDSU                 L

Nevada                L

Navy                  W

Fresno St            L

A couple of these games could be toss ups to be honest, so the Spartans could end up with a better record than this. It's hard to tell, though, because they'll be starting out with a whole new coach, and that usually puts back a program a few years. The Spartans under Mike Macintyre were starting to get somewhere finally after...ever. A new coaching staff will certainly set them back a notch or two.

Nevada            6-6(5-3)

UCLA              L

UC Davis         W

Florida St          L

Hawaii              W

Air Force          W

SDSU                L

Boise St             L

UNLV               W

Fresno St            L

Colorado St        W

San Jose St          W

BYU                   L

Nevada has a very tough out of conference schedule this year, and probably won't get a win versus an FBS school there. Besides that, the Wolf Pack also will have a new coaching staff to get used to after the retirement of their former legendary coach. They may earn a few more wins than this, they had a very potent offense last year, but they probably won't do much better than this.

Fresno St                8-4 (6-2)

Rutgers                   L

Cal Poly                 W

Colorado                 L

Boise St                   L

Hawaii                    W

Idaho                      W

UNLV                    W

SDSU                      L

Nevada                   W

Wyoming                W

New Mexico           W

San Jose St               W

Fresno St. should still be pretty decent this year. The SDSU game could go either way, but the Bulldogs are still growing, and last years bowl loss is a big sign of that. They'll also have some close games with Colorado, Rutgers and Boise St. Derek Carr is one of the best Non-BCS QB's in the country, but they still have some growing to do.

San Diego St            9-3 (7-1) (West Winner)

E Illinois                  W

Ohio St                     L

Oregon St                 L

NMSU                     W

Nevada                    W

Air Force                  W

Fresno St                 W

New Mexico            W

San Jose St              W

Hawaii                     W

Boise St                    L

UNLV                     W

My pick to win the West Division. SDSU will take the momentum from last year and Rocky Long's solid coaching. They lose some good players, but return quite a few. They'll lose once to Boise State during the season, then again in the Conference Championship.

Wyoming                   4-8 (1-7)

Nebraska                    L

Idaho                          W

N Colorado                W

Air Force                     L

Texas St                      W

New Mexico               L

Colorado St                 L

San Jose St                  L

Fresno St                     L

Boise St                       L

Hawaii                        W

Utah St                        L

The Cowboys will probably have another mediocre year. There's a lot of talent in the MWC and Wyoming won't have that much of it at all.

Air Force                  5-7 (2-6)

Colgate                     W

Utah St                       L

Boise St                      L

Wyoming                    W

Nevada                        L

Navy                           W

SDSU                           L

Notre Dame                  L

Army                            W

New Mexico                  L

UNLV                          W

Colorado State               L

They'll win some, they'll lose some. Mainly they'll get left behind with the better teams and probably will become just shy of being bowl eligible. Which is a good thing considering last year's hammering by Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Colorado St                 4-9(3-5)

Colorado                     L

Tulsa                           L

Cal Poly                     W

Alabama                      L

UTEP                          L

San Jose St                  L

Wyoming                    W

Hawaii                        W

Boise St                        L

Nevada                        L

New Mexico                L

Utah ST                       L

Air Force                     W

They play 13 games next season(from the Hawaii Exemption Rule), but that extra game probably won't help them get bowl eliglble. The Rams just need to become more consistent if they want to win more. They could be on the rise, but it might take another year to get the talent on track.

New Mexico            7-5 (4-4)

UTSA                     W

UTEP                      W

Pitt                           L

UNLV                     W

NMSU                     W

Wyoming                W

Utah St                     L

SDSU                      L

Air Force                W

Colorado St            W

Fresno St                 L

Boise St                   L

The Lobos will probably be the most improved team in the league, with Bob Davie getting them back into shape. They'll beat all the bottom teams, and probably all their non-conference games except Pitt. But their losses will come from the more talented teams in the league. This is going to be a team on the rise in the next few years.

Utah St                    8-4(7-1)

Utah                        L

Air Force                W

Weber St                 W

USC                        L

San Jose St             W

BYU                        L

Boise St                   L

New Mexico            W

Hawaii                     W

UNLV                     W

Colorado St             W

Wyoming                W

This was a very talented team last year. And if it wasn't for their coach leaving for Wisconsin, I'd pick them to win the MWC. But just like with the other 1st year head coaches, that will set them back a notch. But they have great talent returning, which will make them formidable, and only losing to Boise State.

Boise St                  11-1 (8-0) (MWC Winner)

Washington             W

Tenn Martin             W

Air Force                 W

Fresno St                  W

Southern Miss           W

Utah St                      W

Nevada                      W

BYU                          L

Colorado St               W

Wyoming                   W

SDSU                        W

New Mexico              W

The Broncos return some talent and QB Southwick could turn into the next great Boise St Quarterback. They quietly went 10-2 last year, including an upset by Almost Big East Rival SDSU. This is going to be BYU's year, which means their defense will hold back the Broncos emerging offense and the Cougars emerging offense will undo the Broncos pretty decent defense.

Bowl Picks!!!

Here's my Bowl Picks for this season, with some explanations and reasonings behind picking from High to Least Confident.
Things I look for in a Bowl Pick
1. Was the coach fired? (Purdue)
2. Did the coach leave? And if so, how much of his staff is gone? (Cincinnatti, San Jose State...)
3. Did they squeak into bowl eligibility? (Iowa St, SMU, GT)
4. Did they get better over the year or seem to get worse? (Arizona St(better), Nebraska(worse))
5. How excited are they to be there? (Northern Illinois)
6. How does the win/loss compare between the two teams? (VT v Rutgers)
7. Finally after all that, how good do the teams compare on paper?

35. Capital One - Georgia over Nebraska. Nebraska fell apart several times this year, most notably in the Big 10 title game. Georgia will be coming off an emotional loss in their title game and besides all the talent that got them 5 yards away from playing in the National Championship, they'll be fired up to redeem themselves and get that bitter taste out of their mouth. Bo Pelini is not a good Bowl coach and I can't imagine he'll be able to fire up his guys, or give them the mouthwash motivation to get the bitter taste of losing out of their mouths. They'll carry that bitter taste all the way till next year. (Earliest pick for 2013 Coach getting fired: Pelini and Nebraska get to 6-6 and Pelini is fired.)

34. - Fight Hunger - Arizona State over Navy. Simple reason: Arizona State has gotten better and better and better this year. They're excited after their climactic rivalry finale over Arizona. And Navy isn't that great this year.

33. Heart of Dallas - Oklahoma State over Purdue - Another easy pick. Ok State is actually pretty good this year. Purdue barely squeaked in and their coach got fired. Not much motivation against a stronger team that wants to gain a lot more experience since they're awfully young.

32. Sun - USC over Georgia Tech - Motivation might be a factor, but USC seems to always play great in whatever bowl they get to. Barkley will shine, there will be a lot of smiles on the sidelines as the Trojans try to maintain their pride and show why they're awesome. Also, the Yellow Jackets don't belong here, they're here because of 2 ineligible teams ahead of them.

31. Hawaii - Fresno State over SMU - Fresno State is pretty good this year. They want to be here, and this is a great way to build on their success. SMU is mediocre.

30. Idaho Potato - Utah State over Toledo - Utah State has been dominant this year. Also, there's something to say about the school that's closer. Utah State is just a few hours drive to Boise, they'll have a lot of fans there.

29. Pinstripe - West Virginia over Syracuse - Old conference rivalry. Syracuse beat them last. But I don't think the Mountaineers will care, they've moved on to the Big 12. This one comes down to who is better, and West Virginia is the better team.

28. Outback - South Carolina over Michigan - This actually might be a close one. But I doubt it. South Carolina represents SEC, and this game will show their dominance over the Big 10. But don't count out Denard's last game, if he's playing great whatever position he's in, Michigan can hang in there.





27. Independence - LA Monroe over Ohio - ULM's first bowl game ever. That should be enough. Plus, Ohio started out great this season garnering some BCS busting talk, but finished by losing 4 of their last 5 games.
26. New Mexico - Arizona over Nevada - Could be one of the more fun games to watch. This game has the nation's 2 best rushers going head to head. But Arizona has gotten better and better with Rich Rod's offense, so I think the Wildcats pull away.
25. Sugar - Florida over Louisville - Louisville is probably more motivated to be here, so it could be close, this may even be an upset. But instinct just says Florida will take care of business. They're offense has been good at times but it's their defense that will keep Louisville out of this game.

24. Chik-fil-A - LSU over Clemson - More chance for the SEC to show their dominance. Unless Clemson plays their hearts out, which probably won't happen as this was a slightly disappointing year for them.





23. Liberty - Tulsa over Iowa State - Should be a good game. But Tulsa has been playing strong, I think they carry that over to the bowl.
22. Poinsettia - San Diego State over BYU - 1st upset pick! No surprise. But it comes down to a couple of things. SDSU has gotten better over the year, BYU has been stagnant, especially on offense. SDSU is more excited to be here, for BYU this is just another average bowl. Both have strong defenses, but only the Aztecs have a good offense. Should be close, but I see SDSU beating their old conference rivals.

21. Rose - Stanford over Wisconsin - It must have hurt for the Badgers when Bret Bielema left, when it seemed like he was probably going to be a lifer. But then balance that with being coached by Barry Alvarez? Stanford won't have any of those debates or distractions. They won the Pac-12, which is more than they were supposed to do this year. Wisconsin has gotten better over the year, but Stanford has stayed good through the entire year.

20. Fiesta - Oregon over Kansas State - Could be the most fun game. The What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Will probably be a close game till the 4th when Oregon finally pulls away. K-State got so close, but failed and that may be what lets their steam die out. Oregon has a younger team that still needs to prove itself, that will keep them going.



19. BCS National Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - Probably another close game. But it will come down to the offense here, since both of these teams have great defenses. Notre Dame seemed to be destined to play here, but there are a lot of teams that seemed destined, but fell short.

18. Military - San Jose St over Bowling Green - Big toss up. Who is Bowling Green and how are they bowl eligible? San Jose State is a huge surprise this year, but they also just lost their coach.






17. Belk - Cincinnati over Duke - Cincinnati is the more talented team. Duke will just be happy to be here after decades without a bowl.
16. Music City - Vanderbilt over NC State - How would it feel to get to a bowl game but your coach got fired? Vanderbilt will be way more motivated and better coached.
15. Little Caesars - Western Kentucky over Central Michigan - The Hilltoppers are in their first bowl game as an FBS school. Doesn't mean much, but that excitement is probably what will keep them ahead, as well as the excitement of where the program is headed. Central Michigan won their last 3 games to become bowl eligible, but history has shown once a team gets that goal, they usually trail off without another clear goal.

14. Alamo - Oregon State over Texas - The Big 12 has had the Pac-12's number in recent bowl games, but that changes this year. I'm predicting a Pac-12 sweep of the Big 12. Oregon State seems to be grat this year, and Texas is having another mediocre year. The Longhorns will also be without their offensive coordinator.




13. Armed Forces - Air Force over Rice - First of the who knows games. I think Air Force is usually a consistent and tricky team to play. Rice seems to have barely squeaked in here and maybe just happy to be in a bowl.
12. BBVA Compass - Pittsburgh over Ole Miss - Ole Miss is lucky to be here, while Pitt is maybe the most improved team in the country. Ole Miss is pretty improved also, and their win over rival Mississippi State was impressive, but I think Pitt is well rounded enough to win this one.
11. Cotton - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - This is where the list starts to get murky. The easy choice would be to go with the Heisman winner. But Oklahoma is a darn solid team when they want to be. Maybe the Sooners want to show their old conference foe that the Big 12 is better, or maybe they want to take a shot at Johnny Football. I think he pulls it out, though, pulls Oklahoma's pants down and goes into the off-season ready to start next year ranked in the top 5.

10. Meineke Car Care - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I hardly ever bet on Minnesota to win anything. They just seem to be the Bad News Bears for some reason. I don't think their program is totally turned around yet, and the Red Raiders have too much talent. Despite their coach leaving, the excitement of their year will probably help propel them to the win. Also, Tech's defense is way better than the Gophers offense.


9. GoDaddy.com - Kent State over Arkansas State - Who knows on this one. Both coach's left for bigger jobs. But I think Malzahn leaving AK State will be more detrimental than Kent State coach, mainly because it seems like Kent State is built on discipline and toughness, while the Red Wolves are just all flash.

8. Russell Athletic - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - Rutgers should win this. Should is the optimal word. Will they? Who knows. The Hokies were awful this year and barely got here, while the Scarlet Knights are having a great season. Virginia Tech should lose.





7. Holiday - UCLA over Baylor - This might be the Alamo Bowl from last year when Baylor and Washington each scored a thousand points. It probably won't, though. UCLA has a decent defense. It will probably be close, which is why I'm not giving much confidence to it. I've liked Baylor this year, it's too bad Nick Florence only has one year as the starting quarterback. When it doubt, go with the better team. UCLA seems like the better team.
6. Las Vegas - Washington over Boise State - Another should. Washington should win this game. Boise State is going to yet another Las Vegas Bowl, and this time around they're going with their most mediocre team since probably 2008. Washington has been shaky all year, though, and the Broncos might still have some magic in them to pull the upset.

5. Gator - Northwestern over Miss State - I think they'll finally do it. Win a Bowl game for the first time since Truman was President. Mississippi State might be better, though, it's hard to tell. I'm going with discipline on this one, though. The Wildcats are more disciplined than the Bulldogs and in close games that can make the difference. The deciding factor will be, does Miss State's offense show up.

4. New Orleans - LA Lafayette over East Carolina - Who the heck knows. Lafayette took Florida to the end and only lost on a miracle blocked punt, so I'll take them.

3. Beef O' Brady's - Ball State over UCF - Complete toss up. I'd have to actually look up stats to see who is better. Central Florida lost a heartbreaker in the Conference USA title game, maybe that's what will get their spirits low. Ball State is having a great year as well, that's what could do it for them.





2. Orange - Northern Illinois over Florida State - Going with the big upset here. Should hopefully be a fun game. NIU will probably throw everything they have at the Seminoles, and the Seminoles may get lazy. This will be the Huskies toughest defense. But guess what, Oklahoma was Boise State's toughest defense in the Fiesta Bowl.
1. Buffalo Wild Wings - Michigan State over TCU - This is so low on the confidence because I have no faith in Michigan State to win this. TCU is a young team, with some proving to do. But the Spartans are far more talented. Could be a close defensive game, but MSU comes out barely on top.