Sloppy Play Leads to Losses and Near Defeats

What started as what seemed a very mediocre season has turned into the story of two types of teams in college football: the Disciplined Alabama's/Oregon's/K-State's/Notre Dame's versus the sloppy South Carolina's/USC's/Texas'/ and now we can add to that list the Florida's of college football. This week showed that divide clearly.

Example 1. South Carolina vs Tennessee
Pretty fair match up. Tennessee is a very talented team. But they're still young, and Derek Dooley despite wearing bright orange pants, hasn't laid a foundation yet that's really solid. South Carolina, it seemed, was going to ride smooth on the foundation Spurrier has laid over the last few years. They had a healthy Lattimore, they had a respectable and well behaved QB finally, and their defense was finally an SEC defense. The Gamecocks proved against Georgia they can play well and decisively. But they have never shown they can be consistent. They got shut down by LSU, a team on paper they could have beaten, and now they barely escaped the Volunteers. Their sloppiness came on defense. The Vols made a lot of big plays. Over and over SC kept blowing assignments, leaving Tennessee receivers wide open. Midway through the game, after a Volunteer touchdown where a receiver was wide open, I said out loud, Tennessee is going to win this game. I was wrong, the Gamecocks held in there, but probably only because Tennessee doesn't have the ability to play great offense all the time. The SEC is the league not only of defense, but consistency, which leads to the next game.

Example 2. Florida vs Georgia
I said going into this game it was kind of a toss up. Georgia has far more talent than Florida, but Florida is far better coached. Mark Richt has brought in some great offensive and defensive talent, but they've been squandered over the last few years due to bad coaching and development. On the other hand, Will Muschamp is barely getting started on his team building. All he has as a new coach is discipline, which will lead to better coaching and ultimately the development of better players. And already we've seen this year, Muschamp has the ability to take pretty good talent and coach them well, with solid wins over LSU and Texas A&M.
Georgia showed early in the season that they do have lots of ability and great playmakers on both sides. But as off season trouble usually shows, they were not being held together as a well coached team. But all it takes is a game where the better coached team starts playing sloppy to pounce. Which is what happened against Florida. Six turnovers. You can't win with that amount of turnovers, except you might come close against Georgia. The Bulldogs played tough defense, they held it in the trenches, didn't allow big plays and forced turnovers. If Georgia played like that every week, they'd be ranked number two instead of where Florida was. But, as the rankings are showing, it takes a disciplined team to stay in the top 10. Which leads to the next game.

Example 3. USC vs Arizona
First we had a sloppy defense in SC v Tenn, then we had a usually sloppy team play great against a sloppy offense in Florida vs Georgia. Now we have all those examples in one team. The USC Trojans. Maybe it's a carry over from the Pete Carroll era, where talent trumped everything else, but that seems to be the norm in the Lane Kiffin era. All season long, we've seen USC's stellar offense. Barkley, Woods and Lee are the best QB and receiver trio in the country. (Maybe West Virginia could rival that) And the running game has been pretty handy to balance that out. And it seemed the Trojan defense was finally good enough to give USC a solid chance of competing on the big stage. But as with the Florida-Georgia debate, what's more important Talent or Better Coaching, we're seeing in Southern California, they keep losing because of bad coaching.
In Tucson the USC defense was slow, they seemed lost at times, they let the Wildcats make way too many big plays, including some horrific blown assignments. This is an Arizona team that scored zero points against Oregon. Oregon at least let Colorado score 14 in the 2nd half. And the hard part to watch was that Arizona wasn't even playing that great. USC was allowing them big plays and time for Matt Scott to make plays. Then when they'd get the ball back USC didn't take advantage.
Prime example of the difference pre-season rankings can be to reality. Look at the other number 1, Alabama. Lost a lot of guys on defense, didn't have to most stellar offense. How are they the number 1 team still? They are extremely disciplined. The coaching is keeping them focused, which leads to consistency and with good coaching and consistency you're going to develop your players into better athletes. We're seeing that in Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame. All teams with the same recipe. In fact, we can even see that in the other undefeated team Louisville. Charlie Strong has a pretty talented team, but he's winning in teaching fundamentals, discipline and consistency.

Two Point Conversion! Can SDSU win the Mountain West?

That's right, it is possible for San Diego State to win the Mountain West.
With their huge upset win over Nevada, the path is set. They need to win their last four games (all conference games) and hope Nevada beats Fresno State. That four game stretch includes the almighty Boise State Broncos in Boise. A tall order, but not impossible. Nevada was the best team in the conference and the Aztecs just beat them without their starting QB for 3 quarters.

Can SDSU beat Boise State? Last year, no way. This year, maybe and even possibly. Boise State has struggled at times on both sides of the ball, but mainly their offense as been slow to get going. They barely beat New Mexico, the losingest team in college football over the last decade, and has had a couple of other closer than liked games. SDSU has been playing pretty sound defense. They just kept the nation's leading rusher to 108 yards. San Diego State is going to have to play their usual defense and new QB Dingwell is going to have to pass efficiently. Boise State has some decent defensive numbers, though, so the game could come down to whose defense is sounder.

Winning the Mountain West will be a nice send off to the Big East.

Go Aztecs!

Midway Point Notes and This Week's Upset Alerts

One midseason regret so far: I have to eat crow on the Longhorns. I put my chips in their corner to do great things this season but they fell flat on their faces and their defense is mainly to blame. They came into the season with high hopes and have just about lost everything to play for. Except pride. And a lot of that is gone after a thumping by Oklahoma.
They're playing Baylor this week, one of the best offenses in the Big 12, and in my opinion the country. It could be the week Texas bounces back. But this is an in-state rivalry game and I think Baylor will beat the Longhorns for the 2nd year in a row.

Another dissapointment: BYU. They were so set to be a BCS buster this year. Riley Nelson seemed like he was ready to lead the team and get the offense together. But it hasn't happened.
Their defense has been playing lights out, but after a dismantling by Oregon State, even that can't be entirely true.
They play another stout defense this week in Notre Dame, their Catholic Brothers, and Notre Dame is probably trying to stay awake and not sleep this week. They've heard the noise about this being a trap game and for their sakes they better treat this game like any other. The real question going into this; who has the better offense. Probably Notre Dame, but not by much.

Two Big SEC Upset Alerts for this week.

The first is with newcomer and upstart Texas A&M. Their offense has seemed to gel around Johhny Manziel. He can pass, he can throw. The Aggies have started putting up big offensive numbers. Of course, LSU may have the best defense in the country. Texas A&M hasn't played a defense like this since Florida, but they've grown a lot since then. Johnny Football is a true freshman, so that says a lot.
LSU also hasn't played an offense like this yet. The Tigers have been coasting by, and I don't think their win over South Carolina was a walk in the park. They had to play better that day and they forced the Gamecocks to make mistakes. I think, in order for LSU to win they have to do the same thing. Get Manziel off balance, force him into mistakes and capitalize. The Aggies should hope to score early and not let the Tigers wear them down, like Florida did.

And the other game: an old SEC rivalry that hasn't had much pizazz the last few years. Tennessee versus Alabama. Just like LSU, Bama hasn't faced an offense as good as this yet. They have the best defense in the country, but we seem to forget their defense is still young. If the Vols strike quickly, with Alabama's slightly weak secondary, they could carry this game into the fourth quarter and then we'll really see if Bama can go for all four quarters. As any rivalry game, anything can happen. A few years back, it took a blocked field goal for Bama to escape and keep it's perfect record alive. If the Vols man up on defense, and play their usual offensive self, they can keep this close. And in close games in the end, it's usually who can make the bigger plays. Tyler Bray is the type of player that can make those plays.

First End of the Year Prediction

Boston College will fire it's coach Frank Spaziani.
Why?

BC just lost to ARMY!!!! Army. Probably the worst Army team since who knows. Probably the worst team in the FBS.

Here's what Spaziani has done in the last few years. Since he's been head coach in 2009, he has a 21-23 record.
Before that BC went to the ACC Championship in 2007 and 2008. The Eagles also had great defenses in those years. From 2001 to 2009 BC consistently ranked in the top of FBS defenses. (They were 5th Nationally in total defense in 2008!) Why? Spaziani was the Defensive coordinator.
Since he's been head coach?
BC hasn't gotten more than 5 wins in the ACC.
Last year they slipped to 70th in Defense and 112th in Total Offense. (109th in 2010 and 98th in 2009)


He's been obviously slipping every year. He's being criticized for taking a Boston College team that had been on the rise thru the 00's. Now...they're at the bottom of the ACC (the ACC for crying out loud) and losing to Army.

Great defensive coordinator. Not a great head coach.

How Texas can beat West Virginia

I made some grand statements regarding Texas' team this year, and this week I've come close to withdrawing them. Why?
Because West Virginia put up 70 points on Baylor and they play Texas this week.
The numbers were awe-inspiring. Geno Smith was "amazing" and "fantastic"....yadda yadda. Yes, that game was as amazing as watching a pick-up flag football game in the park where you have 1 guy rushing the QB and 10 guys running around the open field. I literally fell asleep in the 4th quarter.
When I woke up FX was already on to the next broadcast. How can your offense be amazing with no defense against you?
Before I fell asleep, I shook my head quite a few times at Baylor's defense. They made too many mistakes to count. Far too many times they left receivers wide open. And they never had pressure on Smith, at all. He was able to move freely and have as much time as he needed. Bad ingredients for stopping a talented spread offense.
If you watched the game, you could see the determination and struggle of the Baylor offense to get points on the board. They didn't score as many points, but they played better that day than West Virginia because the Mountaineers weren't giving them so many "gimmes". West Viriginia's defense was not good, but they weren't openly making mistakes, Baylor had to work to earn points. (I use the word work lightly.) Nick Florence's numbers were almost as amazing as Smith's, when you consider that, and by themselves they do look pretty good. Plus, he has an amazing beard, almost as good as the Mountaineer mascot himself.

So...obviously West Virginia is not a fluke. They can score. They do it with great receivers running great routes, speed and Geno Smith who has multiple tools. They also run the ball pretty well. Texas isn't going to have their speed, but they aren't slouches either. Baylor couldn't pressure the passer, that's something Texas can do. They also can't make coverage mistakes. Big plays for West Virginia are BIG PLAYS. Ask Baylor. Ask Clemson. You give them some room and they take it to the house.

The biggest thing, and the only thing we can glean from the Baylor game that they did right(albeit only on offense), is you have to play them tough. Stanford against USC tough. Washington against Stanford tough. Maryland against West Virginia tough. LSU against West Virginia tough. If Baylor had just one ounce more of toughness on defense, that game may have been reversed. That sounds generic, but this season more than recent years, physicality has returned to being so important. There's a reason why the SEC is the best conference, and why LSU and Bama played for the title last year. The last real spread team to win the BCS was Florida, and they played tough, it wasn't just throw the ball and be fast.

If they get to the passer, like LSU did (Smith passed for a school record that night and they still were beat hard.), Texas will disrupt the Mountaineers whole game. Their air attack is like a high wire act, if you get them off balance the whole thing comes crashing down.

Arkansas and Wisconsin...

Arkansas and Wisconsin both have something big in common. And a few small things in common.
It isn't the players. Arkansas returned several key starters including what was the SEC's best QB in Tyler Wilson and one the best running backs in Kniles Davis.
Wisconsin on the other hand lost their QB to the draft and a number of their offensive and defensive starters. They did return one key player in Montee Ball, a Heisman finalist.
Both teams were picked to do quite well this year. The Badgers were not only picked to win the Big 10, they were picked to breeze right to the top of their division with Penn State and Ohio State being inelgible. This was supposed to be the year the Hogs finally win the Western Division of the SEC.

But what happened in the off-season is what has effected both of these schools so much.
Coach Turnover!

We talk so much about the 4 year, cyclical nature of college and the loss of talent to graduation and the draft. What's not talked about as much is the importance of a coaching staff.

It was pretty clear and apparent when Arkansas lost their coach. And when a coach is fired or leaves it's a big deal usually. But the effects on a coach leaving can last for years, maybe even a decade sometimes. Bobby Petrino's departure left a big stain on the program, which is why John L. Smith was brought in to sort of clean it up and keep the ship afloat. But even with the whole fiasco, the media still liked Arkansas' chances because so much talent was coming back. They put little stock into the coaching change.

Another story that was reported minorly in the off-season was 6 coaches leaving Wisconsin for other jobs. There didn't seem to be anything weird going on, each coach left for respectable jobs, and the team was on a roll of consistently wining. (Just not in the Rose Bowl.) Now that Wisconsin is struggling, the media has brought up the story again, as a reason for their struggles. But with Wisconsin it was supposed to be the same story as Arkansas; so much talent was coming back and they had the Heisman finalist Ball returning and another transferring senior like Russell Wilson.

The big story is how important chemistry and continuity is towards a team winning, not on the field, but on the sidelines and in the booth. The co-ordinators are the ones working hands on with the players every day. They're the ones with the working, daily relationships with every one on their side of the team. When you lose a co-ordinator, you're oftentimes losing the coach some of the players had the closest relationships with, and the most trust. You also lose the recruiting bond those coaches and players may have had. A new co-ordinator means having to re-build all of that, having to re-build chemistry, having to re-establish recruiting ties; it's bigger than losing a few players to the draft.

One interesting side not is the irony of a winning program. A winning program means people are doing their jobs well. When people do their jobs well, they tend to either move up or move on to bigger things.(Pete Carroll's last year at USC was a big struggle partly because he lost his offensive and defensive coordinators.) So winning forms good chemistry, which should beget more winning....but oftentimes it creates more struggle when the coaching staff has to re-build. An interesting added cycle to the sport that is built on a cyclical nature.