Friday, December 7, 2012

Could the Pac-12 expand?

Expansion frenzy is back. The Big 10 just scooped up Maryland and Rutgers. Why? They aren't really football powerhouses. Rutgers has only had a handful of winning seasons in its 100 plus years of football. The obviously expanded for the markets and footprints into the encroaching ACC. And there was maybe a little fear of being left behind in the CFB realignment and expansion madness that's going on.
Still...Maryland and Rutgers? They could have done better. But snapping up a school from another AQ conference isn't that easy. It's even harder when you're in a region with no overlap with other AQ conferences, and the number of schools you could pick up is few. The one conference with that issue is the Pac-12.
They now reach from the state of Washington way up in the northwest, down the coast to Southern California, across the desert of Arizona, and inland to Utah and Colorado. The two states with FBS schools they're skipping over.....Nevada and Idaho. The next closest states with FBS schools....Wyoming, New Mexico and I guess Hawaii. Then there's the states with FBS schools and with schools in the conference; California, Utah, and Colorado.
Beyond that is Texas and the mid-west, Big 12 country.
In that footprint there's Boise State, Idaho, Utah State, BYU, Wyoming, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Hawaii, Colorado State, and Air Force.
There's two big criteria that would keep a school out: academically respected research university and tradition of winning.

First the easy eliminations; the schools without any tradition of winning:
Wyoming, Idaho, UNLV, San Jose State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Colorado State. These schools haven't won anything ever in football, at least not in any consistency.

What's left are some schools on the cusp, but each has a reason for not having a chance. In order from the lowest chances first.

Air Force - A unique institution, but doesn't fit with the Pac-12 university culture. Has had a decent football program over the years, but never worthy of big consideration.
Utah State - they've won before, and just won the WAC. But not a consistent program. Also, it's a lowly state school in a state with two huge universities that overshadow them.
Fresno State - This is a program that's been on the cusp of being a Boise State, but could never continue winning. Also, a lowly California State school with low academics.
Hawaii - They've been to a BCS bowl. That's the one and only reason for being considered. But it ends there, the university isn't academically known and their football program has not ever held it's consistency. They were atrocious this year and could take a long time to come back.
San Diego State - A long time football school with similar attributes to Fresno State. Has been consistent the last few years, but wasn't decent since the 90's. The only Cal State school to be ranked nationally by US News and World Report, and is the largest research university of the Cal State schools. But it's still a lower state school, and the tradition of winning isn't there yet.
Boise State - The winning tradition is there. But what holds Boise State back is their academic standings. They don't rank nationally academically, and aren't considered a strong research university. The conference may be willing to overlook that to bring in such a strong football program, but it's unlikely.
Nevada - What Boise State is lacking, Nevada fills in, they are nationally ranked academically and as a research insitution. They're the biggest and most prestigious school in their state as well. But they do lag behind in being a consistently winning football powerhouse. They've only been an FBS school since 1992(longer than Boise State, btw.) But they've also had the luck to beat some Pac-12 schools over the years all the way back to the 1920s. They've been to a bowl game and had a winning record every year since 2005. All this points to an outside chance that Nevada could quite possibly be considered. If, like Utah, they'd been to a BCS bowl, it would be far more likely.
BYU - They haven't been to a BCS bowl, but they have won a National Championship, in 1984. BYU has a huge and long football tradition dating back decades, with a few Heisman winners as well. They also don't do too bad in the academics as well, ranking in the top 100 on US News and World Report's national rankings, higher than a few current Pac-12 schools and any other school on this list. What would hold them back? That darn BYUtv channel and BYU insistence on keeping their TV rights. But is that more important than getting into a conference? There's rumors going around that BYU might go back to the Mountain West, where they could gain access to a post-BCS AQ bowl. With that in mind, BYU may consider giving up some TV rights for a chance to not only get into an AQ conference, but also to stay on the same footing as their arch rival Utah.


So is the Pac-12 stuck with these schools? Could they reach over the mountains and pluck a Texas school or someone from the Mid-West? Looking at the map, that's a huge stretch. None of the major Texas schools would go, not now that the Big-12 is back to solid footing and none would want to leave the close embrace of Daddy Longhorns. Oklahoma and OK State would be just as tough to pull away, they seem awfully content sitting alongside the Texas schools. So then up the line.....the state of Kansas? Would the Pacific-12 conference want a school from Kansas? Either of those schools might listen to a better deal than staying in the shadow of Texas and Oklahoma, but they probably would listen to reason and stay with the regional league.

So it seems...if the Pac-12 ever wants to keep up with the Jones' back east and go to 14....they're going to have to stick to their neighborhood and either 1. Break with their requirements and let in an academically inferior school or 2. Take the two best teams and hope that the mere fact that they're in the Pac-12 makes them better. Just like it seems to have done for Utah and Colorado, right?


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