Who is Still Alive: Week 7

Huge Changes! Huge, but foreseeable. Mississippi State has looked like the number one team since beating LSU. Their consistency just proves it.

A few teams fall off, but not much. UCLA is basically out. Even if they come back and win the whole Pac-12 it seems very unlikely they'd still get a spot. The Pac-12 would look vert weak if UCLA won it. That being said, Arizona hangs on by a thread. If they won out and won the Pac-12 there could be some chance they get in.

The Big 12 is a little more muddled. Baylor is a lock if they win the Big 12. But then there's three teams with a chance left, including Kansas State (who would have a good chance with winning out). Oklahoma is still a great team, but would need to look good the rest of the year winning out, including beating Baylor. TCU still looked good after it's loss to the Baylor, but now needs help from Oklahoma losing again and Baylor losing at least once, but more likely twice. If OU beats Baylor, it would be a three way mess for the committee to figure out. Also, Kansas State plays the Sooners this week, that game could have an impact later on because Baylor goes to Manhattan, Kansas at the end of the season.

Then there's the ACC. Florida State is now the ACC's one shot to get into the playoff. It seems pretty likely that they're going to win it. But they have Notre Dame looming this week in what could be a Semi-Final match. If Notre Dame loses they are most likely out. If Florida State loses they will be holding on by a thread hoping for some help from other conferences.

The SEC is looking clearer and clearer. The season is far from over and both Mississippi schools still have tough games to play. The Bulldogs still have Alabama and a rising Arkansas team. And while we're at it, Kentucky has already played spoiler once, look for them to do it again.
Then of course Ole Miss and Mississippi State still play each other at the end of the year. Ole Miss also still has Auburn and Arkansas, not mention LSU. All of those games seem manageable, but there is always room for a down week.

Look for some more craziness because of the teams left undefeated in the Power 5, only Baylor doesn't play anyone else there. FSU and Notre Dame this week and Ole Miss-MSU at the end of the year. If Notre Dame pulls out a squeker and FSU still looks good, there is a scenario where two Power 5 Conferences are left out with Notre Dame taking a spot. Then imagine if the ND-FSU game happened that way and the the Egg Bowl is a squeaker and the winner then wins the SEC...and if Baylor loses bad....imagine Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Miss State and Florida State being in the playoff. Only TWO Power 5 Conferences would be represented! Unlikely, but possible.


Teams Left Alive
Florida State
Baylor
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Mississippi State

Teams With an Outside Chance
Oklahoma
TCU
Kansas State
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still in The Playoff: Week 6

Major Shakeups across the country in almost ever conference. The only two conferences without a chaotic change were the Big 10, where Michigan State held off Nebraska to stay atop, and the ACC where Florida State still leads the way. FSU did look shaky to start, but then breezed by Wake Forest for most of the game.

As doom and gloom as it might seem for the Pac-12, the season isn't over yet. Both UCLA and Oregon have clear flaws, but they also have enough talent to work through their issues. Both teams move down a tier because as is, they're slightly on the outside looking in. They're going to have to play great to get back in. Arizona, though, actually looks like a new team and the front-runner now, a wild turn of events. If they run the table they're probably in the Playoff.

It might feel like chaos as well in the SEC, especially outside the state of Mississippi, but it could calm there too. Texas A&M is probably the least likely teams left on the lower tier to be able to get in the Playoff now. Their schedule is still crazy and their flaws have shown up. And, their signature win against South Carolina now isn't so shiny as the Gamecocks just lost to Kentucky. In reality, Marshall is the team with the least likely chance because even if they win out, they are so far down the rankings compared to so many teams they need a huge heap of help from a lot of teams losing.
Alabama is a team that could really easily bounce back into the conversation by just doing they what they do. Ole Miss didn't blow them out, and for a lot of the game Bama looked like the better team. They have some weaknesses but their strengths usually outweigh them. It will be an uphill climb, though, they still face Texas A&M, Miss State, and of course Auburn. (Not to mention an upstart Arkansas and an LSU team that's struggling but still talented.)

In the BIG 12 the race looks pretty interesting. Oklahoma is still in contention because if they win out they're still in the conversation. If they win out they will have beaten Baylor, knocking them down a notch and they weren't blown out by TCU. The reason they didn't drop out of the top tier is because it's all mostly still in their hands, if they win out they'll be in the Playoff. It might get interesting, though, if TCU beats Baylor and wins out, then there might be some turmoil.

Then there's Notre Dame. This could be a year very similar to their last National Championship appearance. Just winning enough each week to get by. Although, now they have Florida State on their schedule as the number one team in the country. Let's hope the Selection Committee looks at that as a Semi-Final game, the loser being eliminated from the conversation.

Teams Left Alive

Florida State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Notre Dame

Ole Miss

Mississippi State

Auburn

Arizona

Teams With an Outside Chance

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Oregon

UCLA

Kansas State

Georgia

Alabama

Texas A&M

Florida

Georgia Tech

Where hasn't College Game Day Been?

Hard to believe that College Game Day is at Ole Miss for the first time. It was one of only two spots CGD has missed in the SEC. Where is the other place? Not too far up the road.....Mississippi State.

Here's the other places they have yet to set up shop in the Power 5 Conferences. It's clear to see why teams on the list remain. They're the usual bottom feeders in their conference. For most of these colleges it will probably be a while till College Game Day shows up on campus.

ACC
Wake Forest
Virginia
Duke
Syracuse
Louisville

Big Ten
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Minnesota

Big 12
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor

Pac-12
Cal
Washington State

SEC
Mississippi State


Here's probably the most likely teams CGD could get to the rest of the season:

Miss State - with a win over LSU already and a contender in the SEC West, this seems like the year for CGD to visit Starkville. Maybe next week when Auburn comes to town or on Nov 1 when the host Arkansas.

Baylor - Brand new stadium doesn't hurt their chances, especially the way they're playing. Next week with TCU coming could be a possibility or Nov 22 when Oklahoma State arrives in Waco when maybe both teams will be ranked. Also Nov 29 when Texas Tech comes or an outside chance on Dec 6 when Kansas State visits and there could be championship implications, although with so many championship games that week it is a long shot.

Minnesota - If the Gophers keep winning in the Big Ten, there could be a chance CGD visits toward the end of the year when they host Iowa and Ohio State.

Who is Still in the Playoff: Week 5

A few close games this last week that really could have had an impact. But what ended up happening was the teams likely not to last on this last lost. The two biggest being Penn State, which drops totally out of the running and Arizona State. If they were to come back and win their conference it still is unforeseeable that they'd get a place in the CFB Playoff. Also dropping down was NC State. However they stay on the 2nd Tier list because they had Florida State close to the end, and if they came back and won out, looked good while doing it and won the ACC, it's possible they still could get a spot. (With some 2 loss help from others.) This week we'll see at least a couple teams drop out as the SEC West will eat itself alive this weekend. Ole Miss and Alabama face off. Then Auburn and LSU. And Texas A&M and Mississippi State. If either of the Mississippi schools lose, they're pretty much out unless the games are really tight. Texas A&M and Alabama really look like they're going to propel themselves forward with solid wins.
Then in the Pac-12 Oregon and Arizona play. If Oregon loses they'll drop to the 2nd tier, but if Arizona loses, they're all out. Stanford also takes on Notre Dame. This is probably an elimination game for both teams. Stanford with two losses seems extremely unlikely to still secure a spot with a Conference Championship and Notre Dame, without that option seems like it would need a perfect record to secure a spot.
Then in the Big 12 Oklahoma faces TCU. Same scenario, Oklahoma would still stay in with a loss, but TCU would be out.
In the Big 10, that conferences only hopes for a spot go head to head. Nebraska versus Michigan State. Either team would be potentially out with a loss. If it's a close loss, Nebraska could still hold out a tiny chance, with a flawless rest of the season that looks amazing and tons of help from other conferences. This is the game of the year right now for the Big 10.

It's a HUGE weekend in college football.


Teams Left Alive

Florida State
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Nebraska
BYU
Notre Dame
Oregon
UCLA
Ole Miss
Auburn
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Alabama

Teams with an Outside Chance

NC State
Georgia Tech
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Stanford
Arizona
USC
Georgia
LSU
Florida
Kansas State

Who is Still Alive for the Playoff: Week 4

A few teams moved from the Still Alive column to An Outside Chance column. A couple teams bounced right out, like Missouri and Pittsburgh. Even if they go on to win their conference there would be so many more deserving teams and if Pitt wins the ACC it would be a lock that the ACC would be left out of the Playoff.

Teams Left Alive

All undefeated teams either Independent or from the Power 5 Conferences. They stand atop their conferences meaning if they win their championship they would have a place. NC State is probably the most unlikely team left but because they haven't been tested much, it's hard to tell. Arizona State and TCU are next and will probably fall out completely with a loss. BYU obviously would be totally out with a loss and are still straddling the line between this column and the Outside Chance column.

Florida State

NC State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Penn State

Nebraska

BYU

Notre Dame

Oregon

Arizona State

UCLA

Ole Miss

Auburn

Texas A&M

Miss State

Alabama

Teams with an Outside Chance

Marshall and Cincinnatti are the only teams left undefeated and not from a Power 5. Some of these teams are still undefeated but sit in the lower rungs of their conference and would need to win out and win their championship to have any hope. Duke Georgia Tech from the ACC would still have to hope that there would be some 1-loss conference champions. The same goes for Arizona, Utah, Washington and Oregon State, all undefeated from the Pac-12. They would really need to look good and hope for some help from 1-loss conference champions. The rest of these teams are the 1-loss power teams from the Power 5 that could win the rest of their schedule and conference then hope for a shake at the top. A few of these teams are just barely holding on here by a string, like USC, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas State

and the Big 10 teams (Ohio State and Michigan State), all 1 loss teams that would need a lot of help.

Cincinnati

Georgia Tech

Duke

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Washington

Oregon State

Stanford

Utah

Arizona

USC

South Carolina

Georgia

LSU

Florida

Kansas State

Teams Left Alive for the Playoff - Week 3

Teams Left Alive for the College Football Playoff

These are all the Power 5(and Independent) Teams still undefeated. The SEC has the most with 8. The Big 12 has 4.


Florida State
NC State
Pittsburgh
Kansas State
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Penn State
Nebraska
BYU
Notre Dame
Oregon
Arizona State
UCLA
Florida
Missouri
Ole Miss
Auburn
Texas A&M
Miss State
Alabama
LSU

Teams with an Outside Chance

These are undefeated teams either from lesser conferences or undefeated teams from the bottom half of the Power 5 that will need a lot of help. Or some of the Power 5 teams with one loss that could still come back and rise up the rankings and also win their conferences with only 1 loss.

Cincinnati
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Duke
North Carolina
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Northern Illinois
Cal
Washington
Oregon State
Stanford
Utah
Arizona
USC
South Carolina
Georgia
Arkansas

Shake-Up Saturday Top 25

Given the seismic shift last Saturday, I thought I'd totally start from scratch and fill in what I think is the Top 25. From what I could see of Florida State's dominance, they look better than Alabama all around. Oregon is still the best team in the country, but not by much. It's basically a 3 way tie for first in my mind. Then you have the other un-beatens and back to a Stanford team that was so dominant over a really good Bruin team. And how about that Baylor offense...and their defense?

Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. LSU
10. Louisville
11. Texas Tech
12. Clemson
13. UCLA
14. Texas A&M
15. Fresno State
16. Auburn
17. South Carolina
18. Northern Illinois
19. Wisconsin
20. Oklahoma
21. Oklahoma State
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan

Upsets of the Week

This was a very hard week to make picks, the season is getting into high gear and most of the powderpuff games are over....which means conference play is upon us. I have several conference game upsets picked for this week.

In the Big Ten I'm picking Indiana over Michigan State. The Spartans have not wowed me at all this year and they don't seem to be up to snuff in the weak Big 10. Also, I think Indiana is just really overdue for a big upset, and the way they're putting up stats, this could be the week.
Indiana 31 Michigan State 17

In the Pac-12, I have Oregon State over Washington State. I think this will be a very close game, I'm surprised the Cougars are the favorites, but the edge probably went to the home team. Both teams are doing great things on offense, but I think the Beavers have enough defense to stop Wazzu.
Oregon State 35 Washington State 33

Another Big Ten game, I'm picking Northwestern over Wisconsin. I think this one will be close also and could come down to the final drive, maybe even with Northwestern scoring a last second field goal or something. I just don't think Wisconsin is there yet, and Northwestern is a really strong team that will bounce back from the close lose last week to Ohio State.
Northwestern 24 Wisconsin 23

Down in the SEC, my huge big upset of the week. A team I was questioning why they were even ranked at all versus what is one of the best teams in the nation and a real National title hopeful. That's right....I'm picking the Tigers of Missouri over the Bulldogs of Georgia, the team I picked before the season started to win it all. Mainly it's because of all the injuries in the Bulldogs offense. Aaron Murray can't carry the whole team all alone, and Georgia's defense might not be able to handle the pace of Missouri, which is putting up outstanding numbers. This could be close, and Missouri will have to play lights out and flawless, but I think they'll pull it out.
Missouri 41 Georgia 31

Week 1 Top 25

After an actual week of football it is so much easier to see where teams are.

1. Alabama (1)
2. Oregon (2)
3. Clemson (5)
4. Stanford (4)
5. South Carolina (6)
6. Louisville (8)
7. LSU (10)
8. Georgia (3)
9. Ohio State (7)
10. Oklahoma (11)
11. Florida (9)
12. UCLA (12)
13. Michigan (14)
14. Texas (21)
15. Florida State (22)
16. Texas A&M (13)
17. Arizona State (19)
18. Oklahoma State (23)
19. USC (17)
20. Notre Dame (20)
21. Wisconsin (NR)
22. TCU (16)
23. Nebraska (15)
24. Miami (FL) (NR)
25. Washington (NR)

Georgia - Sadly had to move them down, not too far, though. I think they're still one of the Top 10 teams. The real lesson we learned from that game was how legitimate Clemson actually is. Of the top 5 they have the easiest path to an undefeated season.
South Carolina - They also looked great this week. They were a class above UNC and looked like they could honestly be contenders themselves.
LSU - Another team I had to move up. LSU looked like South Carolina, a class above their opponent, which is saying something because TCU actually was playing great, but just didn't have the talent of LSU.
Florida State - Dominant performance from their freshman QB. He's a future Heisman winner. The Seminoles have a really bright future, if not this year for certain, but this team is the future of the ACC. They weren't perfect, though, against a Pitt team that is better than mediocre, so they probably will still have some growing pains this year.

Subtractions - Pretty easy to nix Oregon State. Ouch. And Boise State was way over rated. I felt even putting them at 25 last week was way too high. They are going to struggle this year. Looks like Fresno State is not the team to beat in the MWC. Sadly, had to cut BYU. I still have high hopes, and we'll see this week with Texas, but just a devastating close lose to a mediocre Virginia squad.

Additions - Washington looked great in their trouncing of Boise St. Keith Price looked great, so good in fact the Huskies could pose a threat to Stanford and Oregon this year for the Pac-12.
Wisconsin was suspiciously missing from my Top 25 and it was because for me they were a question mark. I thin UMass isn't a very good test, but they shut them out. That's saying something.
Miami - 3rd best ACC team and most improved of the last few years. This could be the start of their comeback. I have some high hopes, and I'm actually picking them to upset Florida this week.