Shake-Up Saturday Top 25

Given the seismic shift last Saturday, I thought I'd totally start from scratch and fill in what I think is the Top 25. From what I could see of Florida State's dominance, they look better than Alabama all around. Oregon is still the best team in the country, but not by much. It's basically a 3 way tie for first in my mind. Then you have the other un-beatens and back to a Stanford team that was so dominant over a really good Bruin team. And how about that Baylor offense...and their defense?

Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. LSU
10. Louisville
11. Texas Tech
12. Clemson
13. UCLA
14. Texas A&M
15. Fresno State
16. Auburn
17. South Carolina
18. Northern Illinois
19. Wisconsin
20. Oklahoma
21. Oklahoma State
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan

Upsets of the Week

This was a very hard week to make picks, the season is getting into high gear and most of the powderpuff games are over....which means conference play is upon us. I have several conference game upsets picked for this week.

In the Big Ten I'm picking Indiana over Michigan State. The Spartans have not wowed me at all this year and they don't seem to be up to snuff in the weak Big 10. Also, I think Indiana is just really overdue for a big upset, and the way they're putting up stats, this could be the week.
Indiana 31 Michigan State 17

In the Pac-12, I have Oregon State over Washington State. I think this will be a very close game, I'm surprised the Cougars are the favorites, but the edge probably went to the home team. Both teams are doing great things on offense, but I think the Beavers have enough defense to stop Wazzu.
Oregon State 35 Washington State 33

Another Big Ten game, I'm picking Northwestern over Wisconsin. I think this one will be close also and could come down to the final drive, maybe even with Northwestern scoring a last second field goal or something. I just don't think Wisconsin is there yet, and Northwestern is a really strong team that will bounce back from the close lose last week to Ohio State.
Northwestern 24 Wisconsin 23

Down in the SEC, my huge big upset of the week. A team I was questioning why they were even ranked at all versus what is one of the best teams in the nation and a real National title hopeful. That's right....I'm picking the Tigers of Missouri over the Bulldogs of Georgia, the team I picked before the season started to win it all. Mainly it's because of all the injuries in the Bulldogs offense. Aaron Murray can't carry the whole team all alone, and Georgia's defense might not be able to handle the pace of Missouri, which is putting up outstanding numbers. This could be close, and Missouri will have to play lights out and flawless, but I think they'll pull it out.
Missouri 41 Georgia 31

Week 1 Top 25

After an actual week of football it is so much easier to see where teams are.

1. Alabama (1)
2. Oregon (2)
3. Clemson (5)
4. Stanford (4)
5. South Carolina (6)
6. Louisville (8)
7. LSU (10)
8. Georgia (3)
9. Ohio State (7)
10. Oklahoma (11)
11. Florida (9)
12. UCLA (12)
13. Michigan (14)
14. Texas (21)
15. Florida State (22)
16. Texas A&M (13)
17. Arizona State (19)
18. Oklahoma State (23)
19. USC (17)
20. Notre Dame (20)
21. Wisconsin (NR)
22. TCU (16)
23. Nebraska (15)
24. Miami (FL) (NR)
25. Washington (NR)

Georgia - Sadly had to move them down, not too far, though. I think they're still one of the Top 10 teams. The real lesson we learned from that game was how legitimate Clemson actually is. Of the top 5 they have the easiest path to an undefeated season.
South Carolina - They also looked great this week. They were a class above UNC and looked like they could honestly be contenders themselves.
LSU - Another team I had to move up. LSU looked like South Carolina, a class above their opponent, which is saying something because TCU actually was playing great, but just didn't have the talent of LSU.
Florida State - Dominant performance from their freshman QB. He's a future Heisman winner. The Seminoles have a really bright future, if not this year for certain, but this team is the future of the ACC. They weren't perfect, though, against a Pitt team that is better than mediocre, so they probably will still have some growing pains this year.

Subtractions - Pretty easy to nix Oregon State. Ouch. And Boise State was way over rated. I felt even putting them at 25 last week was way too high. They are going to struggle this year. Looks like Fresno State is not the team to beat in the MWC. Sadly, had to cut BYU. I still have high hopes, and we'll see this week with Texas, but just a devastating close lose to a mediocre Virginia squad.

Additions - Washington looked great in their trouncing of Boise St. Keith Price looked great, so good in fact the Huskies could pose a threat to Stanford and Oregon this year for the Pac-12.
Wisconsin was suspiciously missing from my Top 25 and it was because for me they were a question mark. I thin UMass isn't a very good test, but they shut them out. That's saying something.
Miami - 3rd best ACC team and most improved of the last few years. This could be the start of their comeback. I have some high hopes, and I'm actually picking them to upset Florida this week.

My Pre-Season Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Georgia
4. Stanford
5. Clemson
6. South Carolina
7. Ohio State
8. Louisville
9. Florida
10. LSU
11. Oklahoma
12. UCLA
13. Texas A&M
14. Michigan
15. Nebraska
16. TCU
17. USC
18. BYU
19. Arizona State
20. Notre Dame
21. Texas
22. Florida St
23. Oklahoma St
24. Oregon St
25. Boise St.

Others to mention:
Miami (Fl)
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Penn State
Washington
Ole Miss
Northern Illinois

Some notable changes from the AP Top 25.

1. I put UCLA higher. I think they're going to have a lot stronger team this year
2. ASU is higher, same as above, I think they're being over-looked right now and will end up winning the South.
3. BYU is on the list and pretty far up. They're going to have a tremendous year. They're my BCS busting pick. They return so much talent on both sides and have a new(much needed) Offensive Coordinator.
4. Georgia is higher. They could win it all. They have the best offense in the country and if their defense holds up, could go all the way.
5. Ohio State is way lower. I think they're very overrated. The Big 10 overall is a very poor conference right now.
6. Wisconsin and Northwestern are not on the list. The Big 10 is just not going to be great. Northwestern will be pretty good, but not great. Wisconsin is under a new coach and that should force them back a step. I do like Penn State, though, who under Bill O'Brien will surprise a lot of people again I'm sure.
7. Florida State is lower. Last year they were above mediocre and that was with an NFL quality QB.
8. TCU is higher. I think this could be the big break out for TCU to show they deserve their spot. They obviously have the best defense in the Big 12 and now they have some solid offensive talent returning, they could win that conference.
9. Texas A&M is lower. I think even if Johnny Football plays they'll take a step back. Off the field problems usually have a way of finding their way onto the field. They'll win a bunch of games, but then lose quite a few.

Predicting the Season: The Pac-12

Could be a very interesting year for the Pac-12. Two new coaches and quite a few 2nd year coaches.

California                      2-10
Northwestern                   L
Portland St                       W
Ohio State                         L
Oregon                              L
Washington St                  L
UCLA                             L
Oregon St                        L
Washington                     L
Arizona                           L
USC                               L
Colorado                        W
Stanford                          L

Sonny Dyke's first year will be extremely tough. He doesn't have much to work with, this could be a huge re-build. I imagine the Bears will have a lot of close games, including ones with Washington St, Oregon St, and maybe Arizona. I can't see where they get more than 2 wins.

Washington State     5-7
Auburn                   L
USC                       L
Southern Utah        W
Idaho                      W
Stanford                 L
California               W
Oregon St               L
Oregon                   L
Arizona St             L
Arizona                  W
Utah                       W
Washington            L

Mike Leach's tenure will make some improvements this season, and will probably earn a few upsets, but the rest of the North is just so much better than the Cougars still. They might be able to eek out another win to get bowl eligible, but it's hard to see where that comes from, since I'm already picking an upset over Arizona.

Oregon State              8-4
E Washington             W
Hawaii                        W
Utah                            W
SDSU                         W
Colorado                     W
Washington State        W
Cal                              W
Stanford                      L
USC                           L
Arizona State              L
Washington                W
Oregon                       L

I'll expect just about the same from last year's Beavers, only this time we'll see it coming. Easy first half of the season will give way to the brutal stretch in the 2nd half to their North Division rivals.

Washington             7-5
Boise St                    L
Illinois                      W
Idaho State               W
Arizona                    W
Stanford                   L
Oregon                    L
Arizona St               L
California                W
Colorado                 W
UCLA                     W
Oregon St                L
Washington St         W

Probably another pretty good season for the Huskies. They have Keith Price coming back and if the rest of the offense gels, they could make a better run. But the North elite are just so much ahead of them still. I predict in 2014 they will make a decent run finally at the Pac-12 North.

Oregon                 10-2
Nicholls St               W
Virginia                    W
Tennessee                W
California                 W
Colorado                  W
Washington             W
Washington St         W
UCLA                     L
Stanford                   L
Utah                        W
Arizona                   W
Oregon St                W

With Chip Kelly, this team wins the National Championship. With a new coach, albeit from within the same staff, they will lose to at least one sub-par team, I predict UCLA. The Bruins come to town a week before Stanford and UCLA will have made some really good strides from last year. The Ducks will slip up, then be over matched by Stanford the week after. After the Chip Kelly era, 10-2 will seem like a bad year, but in reality it will have been a great 1st year for Helfrich.

Stanford                12-1 (North Winner)
San Jose St                    W
Army                             W
Arizona St                     W
Washington St               W
Utah                              W
UCLA                           W
Oregon St                      W
Oregon                          W
USC                              W
California                      W
Notre Dame                  W
Pac-12 Championship   L

Until David Shaw leaves for the NFL someday, expect the Cardinal to keep doing what they're doing. They'll have a seasoned QB and a lot of offense and defense returning. They should win the whole league, but I'm betting on the underdog in that game. Still, Stanford will go to a BCS bowl.

Colorado                    3-9

Colorado St                  W

Cent Arkansas              W

Fresno St                       W

Oregon St                     L

Oregon                          L

Arizona St                     L

Arizona                         L

UCLA                          L

Washington                  L

California                     L

USC                            L

Utah                             L

Although starting 3-0, the Buffs won't fare very well in Pac-12 play. MacIntyre's first year will be rough, but Colorado should hopefully by competitive by the end of the season.

Utah                          3-9
Utah State                    W
Weber St                     W
Oregon State                L
BYU                            L
UCLA                         L
Stanford                       L
Arizona                       L
USC                            L
Arizona St                   L
Oregon                       L
Washington St            L
Colorado                    W

Utah won't do much better than last year, with the loss of their star defensive player. Utah was a mess at times last year, and this season will be rough for them to figure it out, ultimately the Utes just won't have the talent to compete as much with the rest of the South.

Arizona                       6-6
N Arizona                     W
UNLV                           W
UTSA                            W
Washington                   L
USC                              L
Utah                              W
Colorado                       W
California                      W
UCLA                           L
Washington St               L
Oregon                          L
Arizona St                     L

Rich Rod's second year should be a lot better, but that probably won't show up on paper. They should have some really close losses, to USC, Washington, Washington St and perhaps even UCLA. The Wildcats will need to vastly improve on defense to win more games, though.

USC                         10-3 (6-3)
Hawaii                          W
Washington St              W
Boston College             W
Utah St                          W
Arizona St                     L
Arizona                         W
Notre Dame                  W
Utah                              W
Oregon St                      W
California                      W
Stanford                         L
Colorado                       W
UCLA                           L

The beginning of the season should hopefully give the Trojans a chance to work their problems out. They still have so much talent, and their QB prospects looks hopeful. Some of these games will probably be really close. With Kiffin on the hot seat, hopefully that helps him get it together, and the re-structuring of the coaching staff will probably benefit them more than is realized. Their 3 losses should come from better teams than them, though.

UCLA                          8-4(6-3)
Nevada                         W
Nebraska                       L
New Mexico St             W
Utah                              W
California                      W
Stanford                         L
Oregon                          W
Colorado                       W
Arizona                         W
Washington                   L
Arizona St                     L
USC                              W

UCLA should be both improved and set back this year. They bring back some good talent, but also lose a bunch, and with some other teams on their schedule probably improving, they will stand to lose a few. They should also win some key upsets, like to USC and maybe a Duck team that's overlooking them for Stanford.

Arizona St                    11-1 (Pac-12 Winner)
Sacramento St                W
Wisconsin                       W
Stanford                          L
USC                               W
Notre Dame                    W
Colorado                         W
Washington                    W
Washington St                W
Utah                                W
Oregon St                       W
UCLA                            W
Arizona                          W
Pac-12 Championship    W

The Sun Devils have a lot of talent coming back, including their QB, who could end up being the best passer in the conference. Combine that with a generally weak South Division and Arizona State is geared to take the south. This is Todd Graham's 2nd year as coach, something that recent history has shown can be a magical year for a program.
In the rematch with Stanford it could really be a toss up, Stanford should win, but I'm betting on a heck of a game for the Sun Devils to upset the Cardinal and go to the Rose Bowl.

Predicting the Season - Mountain West

It may be a tad early, or not, to make some predictions about the coming football season, but here goes.
Starting with the Mountain West, here's how I see the season playing out, team for team.

UNLV                 1-10 (0-8)

Minnesota             L

Arizona                 L

Cent Michigan      L

W Illinois              W

New Mexico          L

Hawaii                   L

Fresno St                L

Nevada                   L

San Jose St              L

Air Force                 L

SDSU                     L

These guys are going to suck again. Bobby Hauck will be let go and someone else can take over the dumpster fire.

Hawaii                      2-10 (1-7)

USC                         L

Oregon St                 L

Nevada                      L

Fresno St                    L

San Jose St                 L

UNLV                       W

Colorado St                L

Utah St                        L

Navy                           L

SDSU                         L

Wyoming                    L

Army                          W

Although they might be better this year, I don't know how many wins they'll put out. Last year the Warriors were never competitive, and I can't see them making any giant leap forward.

San Jose State       6-6(4-4)

Sac State          W

Stanford            L

Minnesota         L

Utah State         L

Hawaii              W

Colorado St       W

Wyoming          W

UNLV               W

SDSU                 L

Nevada                L

Navy                  W

Fresno St            L

A couple of these games could be toss ups to be honest, so the Spartans could end up with a better record than this. It's hard to tell, though, because they'll be starting out with a whole new coach, and that usually puts back a program a few years. The Spartans under Mike Macintyre were starting to get somewhere finally after...ever. A new coaching staff will certainly set them back a notch or two.

Nevada            6-6(5-3)

UCLA              L

UC Davis         W

Florida St          L

Hawaii              W

Air Force          W

SDSU                L

Boise St             L

UNLV               W

Fresno St            L

Colorado St        W

San Jose St          W

BYU                   L

Nevada has a very tough out of conference schedule this year, and probably won't get a win versus an FBS school there. Besides that, the Wolf Pack also will have a new coaching staff to get used to after the retirement of their former legendary coach. They may earn a few more wins than this, they had a very potent offense last year, but they probably won't do much better than this.

Fresno St                8-4 (6-2)

Rutgers                   L

Cal Poly                 W

Colorado                 L

Boise St                   L

Hawaii                    W

Idaho                      W

UNLV                    W

SDSU                      L

Nevada                   W

Wyoming                W

New Mexico           W

San Jose St               W

Fresno St. should still be pretty decent this year. The SDSU game could go either way, but the Bulldogs are still growing, and last years bowl loss is a big sign of that. They'll also have some close games with Colorado, Rutgers and Boise St. Derek Carr is one of the best Non-BCS QB's in the country, but they still have some growing to do.

San Diego St            9-3 (7-1) (West Winner)

E Illinois                  W

Ohio St                     L

Oregon St                 L

NMSU                     W

Nevada                    W

Air Force                  W

Fresno St                 W

New Mexico            W

San Jose St              W

Hawaii                     W

Boise St                    L

UNLV                     W

My pick to win the West Division. SDSU will take the momentum from last year and Rocky Long's solid coaching. They lose some good players, but return quite a few. They'll lose once to Boise State during the season, then again in the Conference Championship.

Wyoming                   4-8 (1-7)

Nebraska                    L

Idaho                          W

N Colorado                W

Air Force                     L

Texas St                      W

New Mexico               L

Colorado St                 L

San Jose St                  L

Fresno St                     L

Boise St                       L

Hawaii                        W

Utah St                        L

The Cowboys will probably have another mediocre year. There's a lot of talent in the MWC and Wyoming won't have that much of it at all.

Air Force                  5-7 (2-6)

Colgate                     W

Utah St                       L

Boise St                      L

Wyoming                    W

Nevada                        L

Navy                           W

SDSU                           L

Notre Dame                  L

Army                            W

New Mexico                  L

UNLV                          W

Colorado State               L

They'll win some, they'll lose some. Mainly they'll get left behind with the better teams and probably will become just shy of being bowl eligible. Which is a good thing considering last year's hammering by Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Colorado St                 4-9(3-5)

Colorado                     L

Tulsa                           L

Cal Poly                     W

Alabama                      L

UTEP                          L

San Jose St                  L

Wyoming                    W

Hawaii                        W

Boise St                        L

Nevada                        L

New Mexico                L

Utah ST                       L

Air Force                     W

They play 13 games next season(from the Hawaii Exemption Rule), but that extra game probably won't help them get bowl eliglble. The Rams just need to become more consistent if they want to win more. They could be on the rise, but it might take another year to get the talent on track.

New Mexico            7-5 (4-4)

UTSA                     W

UTEP                      W

Pitt                           L

UNLV                     W

NMSU                     W

Wyoming                W

Utah St                     L

SDSU                      L

Air Force                W

Colorado St            W

Fresno St                 L

Boise St                   L

The Lobos will probably be the most improved team in the league, with Bob Davie getting them back into shape. They'll beat all the bottom teams, and probably all their non-conference games except Pitt. But their losses will come from the more talented teams in the league. This is going to be a team on the rise in the next few years.

Utah St                    8-4(7-1)

Utah                        L

Air Force                W

Weber St                 W

USC                        L

San Jose St             W

BYU                        L

Boise St                   L

New Mexico            W

Hawaii                     W

UNLV                     W

Colorado St             W

Wyoming                W

This was a very talented team last year. And if it wasn't for their coach leaving for Wisconsin, I'd pick them to win the MWC. But just like with the other 1st year head coaches, that will set them back a notch. But they have great talent returning, which will make them formidable, and only losing to Boise State.

Boise St                  11-1 (8-0) (MWC Winner)

Washington             W

Tenn Martin             W

Air Force                 W

Fresno St                  W

Southern Miss           W

Utah St                      W

Nevada                      W

BYU                          L

Colorado St               W

Wyoming                   W

SDSU                        W

New Mexico              W

The Broncos return some talent and QB Southwick could turn into the next great Boise St Quarterback. They quietly went 10-2 last year, including an upset by Almost Big East Rival SDSU. This is going to be BYU's year, which means their defense will hold back the Broncos emerging offense and the Cougars emerging offense will undo the Broncos pretty decent defense.