Predicting the Season - Mountain West

It may be a tad early, or not, to make some predictions about the coming football season, but here goes.
Starting with the Mountain West, here's how I see the season playing out, team for team.

UNLV                 1-10 (0-8)

Minnesota             L

Arizona                 L

Cent Michigan      L

W Illinois              W

New Mexico          L

Hawaii                   L

Fresno St                L

Nevada                   L

San Jose St              L

Air Force                 L

SDSU                     L

These guys are going to suck again. Bobby Hauck will be let go and someone else can take over the dumpster fire.

Hawaii                      2-10 (1-7)

USC                         L

Oregon St                 L

Nevada                      L

Fresno St                    L

San Jose St                 L

UNLV                       W

Colorado St                L

Utah St                        L

Navy                           L

SDSU                         L

Wyoming                    L

Army                          W

Although they might be better this year, I don't know how many wins they'll put out. Last year the Warriors were never competitive, and I can't see them making any giant leap forward.

San Jose State       6-6(4-4)

Sac State          W

Stanford            L

Minnesota         L

Utah State         L

Hawaii              W

Colorado St       W

Wyoming          W

UNLV               W

SDSU                 L

Nevada                L

Navy                  W

Fresno St            L

A couple of these games could be toss ups to be honest, so the Spartans could end up with a better record than this. It's hard to tell, though, because they'll be starting out with a whole new coach, and that usually puts back a program a few years. The Spartans under Mike Macintyre were starting to get somewhere finally after...ever. A new coaching staff will certainly set them back a notch or two.

Nevada            6-6(5-3)

UCLA              L

UC Davis         W

Florida St          L

Hawaii              W

Air Force          W

SDSU                L

Boise St             L

UNLV               W

Fresno St            L

Colorado St        W

San Jose St          W

BYU                   L

Nevada has a very tough out of conference schedule this year, and probably won't get a win versus an FBS school there. Besides that, the Wolf Pack also will have a new coaching staff to get used to after the retirement of their former legendary coach. They may earn a few more wins than this, they had a very potent offense last year, but they probably won't do much better than this.

Fresno St                8-4 (6-2)

Rutgers                   L

Cal Poly                 W

Colorado                 L

Boise St                   L

Hawaii                    W

Idaho                      W

UNLV                    W

SDSU                      L

Nevada                   W

Wyoming                W

New Mexico           W

San Jose St               W

Fresno St. should still be pretty decent this year. The SDSU game could go either way, but the Bulldogs are still growing, and last years bowl loss is a big sign of that. They'll also have some close games with Colorado, Rutgers and Boise St. Derek Carr is one of the best Non-BCS QB's in the country, but they still have some growing to do.

San Diego St            9-3 (7-1) (West Winner)

E Illinois                  W

Ohio St                     L

Oregon St                 L

NMSU                     W

Nevada                    W

Air Force                  W

Fresno St                 W

New Mexico            W

San Jose St              W

Hawaii                     W

Boise St                    L

UNLV                     W

My pick to win the West Division. SDSU will take the momentum from last year and Rocky Long's solid coaching. They lose some good players, but return quite a few. They'll lose once to Boise State during the season, then again in the Conference Championship.

Wyoming                   4-8 (1-7)

Nebraska                    L

Idaho                          W

N Colorado                W

Air Force                     L

Texas St                      W

New Mexico               L

Colorado St                 L

San Jose St                  L

Fresno St                     L

Boise St                       L

Hawaii                        W

Utah St                        L

The Cowboys will probably have another mediocre year. There's a lot of talent in the MWC and Wyoming won't have that much of it at all.

Air Force                  5-7 (2-6)

Colgate                     W

Utah St                       L

Boise St                      L

Wyoming                    W

Nevada                        L

Navy                           W

SDSU                           L

Notre Dame                  L

Army                            W

New Mexico                  L

UNLV                          W

Colorado State               L

They'll win some, they'll lose some. Mainly they'll get left behind with the better teams and probably will become just shy of being bowl eligible. Which is a good thing considering last year's hammering by Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Colorado St                 4-9(3-5)

Colorado                     L

Tulsa                           L

Cal Poly                     W

Alabama                      L

UTEP                          L

San Jose St                  L

Wyoming                    W

Hawaii                        W

Boise St                        L

Nevada                        L

New Mexico                L

Utah ST                       L

Air Force                     W

They play 13 games next season(from the Hawaii Exemption Rule), but that extra game probably won't help them get bowl eliglble. The Rams just need to become more consistent if they want to win more. They could be on the rise, but it might take another year to get the talent on track.

New Mexico            7-5 (4-4)

UTSA                     W

UTEP                      W

Pitt                           L

UNLV                     W

NMSU                     W

Wyoming                W

Utah St                     L

SDSU                      L

Air Force                W

Colorado St            W

Fresno St                 L

Boise St                   L

The Lobos will probably be the most improved team in the league, with Bob Davie getting them back into shape. They'll beat all the bottom teams, and probably all their non-conference games except Pitt. But their losses will come from the more talented teams in the league. This is going to be a team on the rise in the next few years.

Utah St                    8-4(7-1)

Utah                        L

Air Force                W

Weber St                 W

USC                        L

San Jose St             W

BYU                        L

Boise St                   L

New Mexico            W

Hawaii                     W

UNLV                     W

Colorado St             W

Wyoming                W

This was a very talented team last year. And if it wasn't for their coach leaving for Wisconsin, I'd pick them to win the MWC. But just like with the other 1st year head coaches, that will set them back a notch. But they have great talent returning, which will make them formidable, and only losing to Boise State.

Boise St                  11-1 (8-0) (MWC Winner)

Washington             W

Tenn Martin             W

Air Force                 W

Fresno St                  W

Southern Miss           W

Utah St                      W

Nevada                      W

BYU                          L

Colorado St               W

Wyoming                   W

SDSU                        W

New Mexico              W

The Broncos return some talent and QB Southwick could turn into the next great Boise St Quarterback. They quietly went 10-2 last year, including an upset by Almost Big East Rival SDSU. This is going to be BYU's year, which means their defense will hold back the Broncos emerging offense and the Cougars emerging offense will undo the Broncos pretty decent defense.

Bowl Picks!!!

Here's my Bowl Picks for this season, with some explanations and reasonings behind picking from High to Least Confident.
Things I look for in a Bowl Pick
1. Was the coach fired? (Purdue)
2. Did the coach leave? And if so, how much of his staff is gone? (Cincinnatti, San Jose State...)
3. Did they squeak into bowl eligibility? (Iowa St, SMU, GT)
4. Did they get better over the year or seem to get worse? (Arizona St(better), Nebraska(worse))
5. How excited are they to be there? (Northern Illinois)
6. How does the win/loss compare between the two teams? (VT v Rutgers)
7. Finally after all that, how good do the teams compare on paper?

35. Capital One - Georgia over Nebraska. Nebraska fell apart several times this year, most notably in the Big 10 title game. Georgia will be coming off an emotional loss in their title game and besides all the talent that got them 5 yards away from playing in the National Championship, they'll be fired up to redeem themselves and get that bitter taste out of their mouth. Bo Pelini is not a good Bowl coach and I can't imagine he'll be able to fire up his guys, or give them the mouthwash motivation to get the bitter taste of losing out of their mouths. They'll carry that bitter taste all the way till next year. (Earliest pick for 2013 Coach getting fired: Pelini and Nebraska get to 6-6 and Pelini is fired.)

34. - Fight Hunger - Arizona State over Navy. Simple reason: Arizona State has gotten better and better and better this year. They're excited after their climactic rivalry finale over Arizona. And Navy isn't that great this year.

33. Heart of Dallas - Oklahoma State over Purdue - Another easy pick. Ok State is actually pretty good this year. Purdue barely squeaked in and their coach got fired. Not much motivation against a stronger team that wants to gain a lot more experience since they're awfully young.

32. Sun - USC over Georgia Tech - Motivation might be a factor, but USC seems to always play great in whatever bowl they get to. Barkley will shine, there will be a lot of smiles on the sidelines as the Trojans try to maintain their pride and show why they're awesome. Also, the Yellow Jackets don't belong here, they're here because of 2 ineligible teams ahead of them.

31. Hawaii - Fresno State over SMU - Fresno State is pretty good this year. They want to be here, and this is a great way to build on their success. SMU is mediocre.

30. Idaho Potato - Utah State over Toledo - Utah State has been dominant this year. Also, there's something to say about the school that's closer. Utah State is just a few hours drive to Boise, they'll have a lot of fans there.

29. Pinstripe - West Virginia over Syracuse - Old conference rivalry. Syracuse beat them last. But I don't think the Mountaineers will care, they've moved on to the Big 12. This one comes down to who is better, and West Virginia is the better team.

28. Outback - South Carolina over Michigan - This actually might be a close one. But I doubt it. South Carolina represents SEC, and this game will show their dominance over the Big 10. But don't count out Denard's last game, if he's playing great whatever position he's in, Michigan can hang in there.





27. Independence - LA Monroe over Ohio - ULM's first bowl game ever. That should be enough. Plus, Ohio started out great this season garnering some BCS busting talk, but finished by losing 4 of their last 5 games.
26. New Mexico - Arizona over Nevada - Could be one of the more fun games to watch. This game has the nation's 2 best rushers going head to head. But Arizona has gotten better and better with Rich Rod's offense, so I think the Wildcats pull away.
25. Sugar - Florida over Louisville - Louisville is probably more motivated to be here, so it could be close, this may even be an upset. But instinct just says Florida will take care of business. They're offense has been good at times but it's their defense that will keep Louisville out of this game.

24. Chik-fil-A - LSU over Clemson - More chance for the SEC to show their dominance. Unless Clemson plays their hearts out, which probably won't happen as this was a slightly disappointing year for them.





23. Liberty - Tulsa over Iowa State - Should be a good game. But Tulsa has been playing strong, I think they carry that over to the bowl.
22. Poinsettia - San Diego State over BYU - 1st upset pick! No surprise. But it comes down to a couple of things. SDSU has gotten better over the year, BYU has been stagnant, especially on offense. SDSU is more excited to be here, for BYU this is just another average bowl. Both have strong defenses, but only the Aztecs have a good offense. Should be close, but I see SDSU beating their old conference rivals.

21. Rose - Stanford over Wisconsin - It must have hurt for the Badgers when Bret Bielema left, when it seemed like he was probably going to be a lifer. But then balance that with being coached by Barry Alvarez? Stanford won't have any of those debates or distractions. They won the Pac-12, which is more than they were supposed to do this year. Wisconsin has gotten better over the year, but Stanford has stayed good through the entire year.

20. Fiesta - Oregon over Kansas State - Could be the most fun game. The What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Will probably be a close game till the 4th when Oregon finally pulls away. K-State got so close, but failed and that may be what lets their steam die out. Oregon has a younger team that still needs to prove itself, that will keep them going.



19. BCS National Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - Probably another close game. But it will come down to the offense here, since both of these teams have great defenses. Notre Dame seemed to be destined to play here, but there are a lot of teams that seemed destined, but fell short.

18. Military - San Jose St over Bowling Green - Big toss up. Who is Bowling Green and how are they bowl eligible? San Jose State is a huge surprise this year, but they also just lost their coach.






17. Belk - Cincinnati over Duke - Cincinnati is the more talented team. Duke will just be happy to be here after decades without a bowl.
16. Music City - Vanderbilt over NC State - How would it feel to get to a bowl game but your coach got fired? Vanderbilt will be way more motivated and better coached.
15. Little Caesars - Western Kentucky over Central Michigan - The Hilltoppers are in their first bowl game as an FBS school. Doesn't mean much, but that excitement is probably what will keep them ahead, as well as the excitement of where the program is headed. Central Michigan won their last 3 games to become bowl eligible, but history has shown once a team gets that goal, they usually trail off without another clear goal.

14. Alamo - Oregon State over Texas - The Big 12 has had the Pac-12's number in recent bowl games, but that changes this year. I'm predicting a Pac-12 sweep of the Big 12. Oregon State seems to be grat this year, and Texas is having another mediocre year. The Longhorns will also be without their offensive coordinator.




13. Armed Forces - Air Force over Rice - First of the who knows games. I think Air Force is usually a consistent and tricky team to play. Rice seems to have barely squeaked in here and maybe just happy to be in a bowl.
12. BBVA Compass - Pittsburgh over Ole Miss - Ole Miss is lucky to be here, while Pitt is maybe the most improved team in the country. Ole Miss is pretty improved also, and their win over rival Mississippi State was impressive, but I think Pitt is well rounded enough to win this one.
11. Cotton - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - This is where the list starts to get murky. The easy choice would be to go with the Heisman winner. But Oklahoma is a darn solid team when they want to be. Maybe the Sooners want to show their old conference foe that the Big 12 is better, or maybe they want to take a shot at Johnny Football. I think he pulls it out, though, pulls Oklahoma's pants down and goes into the off-season ready to start next year ranked in the top 5.

10. Meineke Car Care - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I hardly ever bet on Minnesota to win anything. They just seem to be the Bad News Bears for some reason. I don't think their program is totally turned around yet, and the Red Raiders have too much talent. Despite their coach leaving, the excitement of their year will probably help propel them to the win. Also, Tech's defense is way better than the Gophers offense.


9. GoDaddy.com - Kent State over Arkansas State - Who knows on this one. Both coach's left for bigger jobs. But I think Malzahn leaving AK State will be more detrimental than Kent State coach, mainly because it seems like Kent State is built on discipline and toughness, while the Red Wolves are just all flash.

8. Russell Athletic - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - Rutgers should win this. Should is the optimal word. Will they? Who knows. The Hokies were awful this year and barely got here, while the Scarlet Knights are having a great season. Virginia Tech should lose.





7. Holiday - UCLA over Baylor - This might be the Alamo Bowl from last year when Baylor and Washington each scored a thousand points. It probably won't, though. UCLA has a decent defense. It will probably be close, which is why I'm not giving much confidence to it. I've liked Baylor this year, it's too bad Nick Florence only has one year as the starting quarterback. When it doubt, go with the better team. UCLA seems like the better team.
6. Las Vegas - Washington over Boise State - Another should. Washington should win this game. Boise State is going to yet another Las Vegas Bowl, and this time around they're going with their most mediocre team since probably 2008. Washington has been shaky all year, though, and the Broncos might still have some magic in them to pull the upset.

5. Gator - Northwestern over Miss State - I think they'll finally do it. Win a Bowl game for the first time since Truman was President. Mississippi State might be better, though, it's hard to tell. I'm going with discipline on this one, though. The Wildcats are more disciplined than the Bulldogs and in close games that can make the difference. The deciding factor will be, does Miss State's offense show up.

4. New Orleans - LA Lafayette over East Carolina - Who the heck knows. Lafayette took Florida to the end and only lost on a miracle blocked punt, so I'll take them.

3. Beef O' Brady's - Ball State over UCF - Complete toss up. I'd have to actually look up stats to see who is better. Central Florida lost a heartbreaker in the Conference USA title game, maybe that's what will get their spirits low. Ball State is having a great year as well, that's what could do it for them.





2. Orange - Northern Illinois over Florida State - Going with the big upset here. Should hopefully be a fun game. NIU will probably throw everything they have at the Seminoles, and the Seminoles may get lazy. This will be the Huskies toughest defense. But guess what, Oklahoma was Boise State's toughest defense in the Fiesta Bowl.
1. Buffalo Wild Wings - Michigan State over TCU - This is so low on the confidence because I have no faith in Michigan State to win this. TCU is a young team, with some proving to do. But the Spartans are far more talented. Could be a close defensive game, but MSU comes out barely on top.

Why The Coaches Poll Is Poop

Awesome and crazy weekend for college football. None more exciting of course than....San Diego State's win on the blue turf over Boise State!!!!
Also, wild finishes in the Notre Dame-Pitt game, huge scores in the Oregon-USC game and a game I'm sure no one cared about in Alabama's last minute come from behind victory over LSU in Death Valley.

There was not much change at the top. Even though a couple games were close, the top 4 teams beat who they were supposed to, and there weren't any major upsets. Except the Aztecs defying the odds and delivering the Broncos to one of their very few loses on their home field.

But it's easy to get the rankings right at the top when the top teams win. But it's the rest of the rankings that concerns me and why the Coaches Poll is ridiculous. Here's a few examples:

1. Boise State - They were somehow ranked 14 last week. Which, if anyone has seen or knows anything about this team this year, they should not have been ranked so high. They are struggling and trying to re-build. I know if a team keeps winning they usually rise in the polls, but this team was barely getting by and it finally showed in the loss to SDSU. So it begs the question, why is Boise State still ranked at all?

2. How did Louisiana-Monroe get 4 votes? - ULM was on the fringe of getting any votes. They've been winning over their Sun Belt compatriots, teams like 2-7 Florida Atlantic and 2-7 South Alabama. To be fair, the Sun Belt seems better than normal with already 4 bowl eligible teams so far in the league. But they just lost to Louisiana-Lafayette. So, if ULM was on the fringe as is, and they lost, who is still ranking the War Hawks in their rankings? Is there 1 coach ranking them 22nd, or are there four coaches ranking them 25th? I would love to see these coaches individual rankings. Because these are supposed to be the brilliant college football minds, so they must be seeing things in all the free time they have to watch all the games happening.

3. Who has seen enough of Middle Tennessee? - These guys have a decent team this year. But here's some highlights from the year so far. They lost 45-3 to Miss State. Their other FBS lost was to Louisiana-Monroe, a team that obviously should still be getting votes. Oh and the only FCS loss they have of the year, a loss to McNeese State of the Southland Conference. McNeese State must be the best FCS school in the country. Nope, not even in their conference, they're currently in 5th place in the Southland Conference. Who is giving Middle Tennessee votes in their rankings?

4. Another Odd Choice for a Team receiving votes - Tulsa has been having a decent year. They had a pretty good few years under coach Todd Graham, and now it seems like Bill Blankenship is keeping that going. But they haven't been having a year where they should be ranked in the Top 25. Their most impressive win was over Fresno State. This week they played Arkansas close, but lost. Who is still giving them 4 votes after a loss to Arkansas? Are other C-USA coaches giving them the votes? Is there a problem with that? Is that bias or does that mean, the other C-USA coaches can see things other people can't? Either way that's not an accurate picture, and proof that the Coach's Poll is extremely flawed.

I don't know if it's confirmed or not if the Coach's Poll will continue after the BCS changes, but that selection committee can't seem to come soon enough.