Who is Still Alive: Week 8

Remarkably, Notre Dame loses and they still stay in the hunt. That's because they took FSU down to 13 seconds and had the game ripped out of their hands by a controversial call. And if the Irish run the table they look like they could still snag a spot. The options of them running the table now and not getting in depend on a couple things. If FSU stops winning those close games and starts losing them, then Notre Dame's loss will look all the worse. Then if Oregon runs the table, wins the Pac-12 and looks amazing doing it, alongside a TCU or Baylor as the champ of the Big-12 and either looking amazing doing it, or if Ohio State/Michigan State keeps silently looking good and wins the Big-10....then Notre Dame is up against 3 One-Loss Conference Champions (two of which would also have won an extra game in their conference championship). Then also, if Florida State loses a game but wins the ACC then that would be 4 One-Loss Conference Champions. The other option is the SEC having two teams in the playoff, that's one less Conference Champ to let in.

Back to the Big 12. It's a little bit of a mess now, thanks to Oklahoma losing. The Sooners are out. Two losses in the Big 12 is a deal-breaker, with the quality of teams around the country and the number of 1 loss teams left, they're out for the Playoff. If they win the Big 12 that would mean K-State and TCU would need to lose 3 times and Baylor lose to Oklahoma. Oklahoma still could get into one of the Big Bowls, but even that seems less likely now. Baylor's Playoff hopes now hang by a thread. They're still in the Second Tier because there is potentially a very outside chance they get back in. They'd have to win out and look good and gets lots of help from Conference Champions having more than one loss and the SEC eating itself alive with the SEC West's non-winner having lots of losses.

As it stands now, here's what seems like the most likely outcome for the 4 teams.
Florida State wins the ACC and is undefeated. Louisville could be a tricky game because they're in transition, have talent and have the ability to pick off a better team, if that team is overlooking them.
Either Ole Miss or Mississippi State is in. They both get to the Egg Bowl undefeated then the winner goes on to win the SEC.
Oregon gets better and better looking as they get back to healthy. They destroy the South counterpart(whether it's ASU, USC or UCLA again), and look like the 2nd best Conference Champion.
TCU keeps winning and wins the Big 12. They get in as a conference champion and because of their great defense. This 4th spot will be the controversial one, because either Ohio State or Michigan State could be a 1 loss champion and is left out.

Left Out
Ohio State/Michigan State - Either of these teams will probably have the most legitimate claim(if they don't lose another game) But Ohio State has that awful loss to Virgina Tech, and Oregon beat MSU
Alabama/Auburn/Loser of the Egg Bowl - one of these teams will have a legitimate complaint, but the Conference Champions will look so much better by year's end
Notre Dame - They could be the first team out, losing out to Conference Champions
Marshall - just not enough of a quality schedule, even going undefeated


Teams Left Alive
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Florida State
Notre Dame


Teams With A Chance
TCU
Kansas State
Baylor
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still Alive: Week 7

Huge Changes! Huge, but foreseeable. Mississippi State has looked like the number one team since beating LSU. Their consistency just proves it.

A few teams fall off, but not much. UCLA is basically out. Even if they come back and win the whole Pac-12 it seems very unlikely they'd still get a spot. The Pac-12 would look vert weak if UCLA won it. That being said, Arizona hangs on by a thread. If they won out and won the Pac-12 there could be some chance they get in.

The Big 12 is a little more muddled. Baylor is a lock if they win the Big 12. But then there's three teams with a chance left, including Kansas State (who would have a good chance with winning out). Oklahoma is still a great team, but would need to look good the rest of the year winning out, including beating Baylor. TCU still looked good after it's loss to the Baylor, but now needs help from Oklahoma losing again and Baylor losing at least once, but more likely twice. If OU beats Baylor, it would be a three way mess for the committee to figure out. Also, Kansas State plays the Sooners this week, that game could have an impact later on because Baylor goes to Manhattan, Kansas at the end of the season.

Then there's the ACC. Florida State is now the ACC's one shot to get into the playoff. It seems pretty likely that they're going to win it. But they have Notre Dame looming this week in what could be a Semi-Final match. If Notre Dame loses they are most likely out. If Florida State loses they will be holding on by a thread hoping for some help from other conferences.

The SEC is looking clearer and clearer. The season is far from over and both Mississippi schools still have tough games to play. The Bulldogs still have Alabama and a rising Arkansas team. And while we're at it, Kentucky has already played spoiler once, look for them to do it again.
Then of course Ole Miss and Mississippi State still play each other at the end of the year. Ole Miss also still has Auburn and Arkansas, not mention LSU. All of those games seem manageable, but there is always room for a down week.

Look for some more craziness because of the teams left undefeated in the Power 5, only Baylor doesn't play anyone else there. FSU and Notre Dame this week and Ole Miss-MSU at the end of the year. If Notre Dame pulls out a squeker and FSU still looks good, there is a scenario where two Power 5 Conferences are left out with Notre Dame taking a spot. Then imagine if the ND-FSU game happened that way and the the Egg Bowl is a squeaker and the winner then wins the SEC...and if Baylor loses bad....imagine Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Miss State and Florida State being in the playoff. Only TWO Power 5 Conferences would be represented! Unlikely, but possible.


Teams Left Alive
Florida State
Baylor
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Mississippi State

Teams With an Outside Chance
Oklahoma
TCU
Kansas State
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama

Who is Still in The Playoff: Week 6

Major Shakeups across the country in almost ever conference. The only two conferences without a chaotic change were the Big 10, where Michigan State held off Nebraska to stay atop, and the ACC where Florida State still leads the way. FSU did look shaky to start, but then breezed by Wake Forest for most of the game.

As doom and gloom as it might seem for the Pac-12, the season isn't over yet. Both UCLA and Oregon have clear flaws, but they also have enough talent to work through their issues. Both teams move down a tier because as is, they're slightly on the outside looking in. They're going to have to play great to get back in. Arizona, though, actually looks like a new team and the front-runner now, a wild turn of events. If they run the table they're probably in the Playoff.

It might feel like chaos as well in the SEC, especially outside the state of Mississippi, but it could calm there too. Texas A&M is probably the least likely teams left on the lower tier to be able to get in the Playoff now. Their schedule is still crazy and their flaws have shown up. And, their signature win against South Carolina now isn't so shiny as the Gamecocks just lost to Kentucky. In reality, Marshall is the team with the least likely chance because even if they win out, they are so far down the rankings compared to so many teams they need a huge heap of help from a lot of teams losing.
Alabama is a team that could really easily bounce back into the conversation by just doing they what they do. Ole Miss didn't blow them out, and for a lot of the game Bama looked like the better team. They have some weaknesses but their strengths usually outweigh them. It will be an uphill climb, though, they still face Texas A&M, Miss State, and of course Auburn. (Not to mention an upstart Arkansas and an LSU team that's struggling but still talented.)

In the BIG 12 the race looks pretty interesting. Oklahoma is still in contention because if they win out they're still in the conversation. If they win out they will have beaten Baylor, knocking them down a notch and they weren't blown out by TCU. The reason they didn't drop out of the top tier is because it's all mostly still in their hands, if they win out they'll be in the Playoff. It might get interesting, though, if TCU beats Baylor and wins out, then there might be some turmoil.

Then there's Notre Dame. This could be a year very similar to their last National Championship appearance. Just winning enough each week to get by. Although, now they have Florida State on their schedule as the number one team in the country. Let's hope the Selection Committee looks at that as a Semi-Final game, the loser being eliminated from the conversation.

Teams Left Alive

Florida State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Notre Dame

Ole Miss

Mississippi State

Auburn

Arizona

Teams With an Outside Chance

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Oregon

UCLA

Kansas State

Georgia

Alabama

Texas A&M

Florida

Georgia Tech

Where hasn't College Game Day Been?

Hard to believe that College Game Day is at Ole Miss for the first time. It was one of only two spots CGD has missed in the SEC. Where is the other place? Not too far up the road.....Mississippi State.

Here's the other places they have yet to set up shop in the Power 5 Conferences. It's clear to see why teams on the list remain. They're the usual bottom feeders in their conference. For most of these colleges it will probably be a while till College Game Day shows up on campus.

ACC
Wake Forest
Virginia
Duke
Syracuse
Louisville

Big Ten
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Minnesota

Big 12
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor

Pac-12
Cal
Washington State

SEC
Mississippi State


Here's probably the most likely teams CGD could get to the rest of the season:

Miss State - with a win over LSU already and a contender in the SEC West, this seems like the year for CGD to visit Starkville. Maybe next week when Auburn comes to town or on Nov 1 when the host Arkansas.

Baylor - Brand new stadium doesn't hurt their chances, especially the way they're playing. Next week with TCU coming could be a possibility or Nov 22 when Oklahoma State arrives in Waco when maybe both teams will be ranked. Also Nov 29 when Texas Tech comes or an outside chance on Dec 6 when Kansas State visits and there could be championship implications, although with so many championship games that week it is a long shot.

Minnesota - If the Gophers keep winning in the Big Ten, there could be a chance CGD visits toward the end of the year when they host Iowa and Ohio State.

Who is Still in the Playoff: Week 5

A few close games this last week that really could have had an impact. But what ended up happening was the teams likely not to last on this last lost. The two biggest being Penn State, which drops totally out of the running and Arizona State. If they were to come back and win their conference it still is unforeseeable that they'd get a place in the CFB Playoff. Also dropping down was NC State. However they stay on the 2nd Tier list because they had Florida State close to the end, and if they came back and won out, looked good while doing it and won the ACC, it's possible they still could get a spot. (With some 2 loss help from others.) This week we'll see at least a couple teams drop out as the SEC West will eat itself alive this weekend. Ole Miss and Alabama face off. Then Auburn and LSU. And Texas A&M and Mississippi State. If either of the Mississippi schools lose, they're pretty much out unless the games are really tight. Texas A&M and Alabama really look like they're going to propel themselves forward with solid wins.
Then in the Pac-12 Oregon and Arizona play. If Oregon loses they'll drop to the 2nd tier, but if Arizona loses, they're all out. Stanford also takes on Notre Dame. This is probably an elimination game for both teams. Stanford with two losses seems extremely unlikely to still secure a spot with a Conference Championship and Notre Dame, without that option seems like it would need a perfect record to secure a spot.
Then in the Big 12 Oklahoma faces TCU. Same scenario, Oklahoma would still stay in with a loss, but TCU would be out.
In the Big 10, that conferences only hopes for a spot go head to head. Nebraska versus Michigan State. Either team would be potentially out with a loss. If it's a close loss, Nebraska could still hold out a tiny chance, with a flawless rest of the season that looks amazing and tons of help from other conferences. This is the game of the year right now for the Big 10.

It's a HUGE weekend in college football.


Teams Left Alive

Florida State
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Nebraska
BYU
Notre Dame
Oregon
UCLA
Ole Miss
Auburn
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Alabama

Teams with an Outside Chance

NC State
Georgia Tech
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Stanford
Arizona
USC
Georgia
LSU
Florida
Kansas State

Who is Still Alive for the Playoff: Week 4

A few teams moved from the Still Alive column to An Outside Chance column. A couple teams bounced right out, like Missouri and Pittsburgh. Even if they go on to win their conference there would be so many more deserving teams and if Pitt wins the ACC it would be a lock that the ACC would be left out of the Playoff.

Teams Left Alive

All undefeated teams either Independent or from the Power 5 Conferences. They stand atop their conferences meaning if they win their championship they would have a place. NC State is probably the most unlikely team left but because they haven't been tested much, it's hard to tell. Arizona State and TCU are next and will probably fall out completely with a loss. BYU obviously would be totally out with a loss and are still straddling the line between this column and the Outside Chance column.

Florida State

NC State

Baylor

Oklahoma

TCU

Penn State

Nebraska

BYU

Notre Dame

Oregon

Arizona State

UCLA

Ole Miss

Auburn

Texas A&M

Miss State

Alabama

Teams with an Outside Chance

Marshall and Cincinnatti are the only teams left undefeated and not from a Power 5. Some of these teams are still undefeated but sit in the lower rungs of their conference and would need to win out and win their championship to have any hope. Duke Georgia Tech from the ACC would still have to hope that there would be some 1-loss conference champions. The same goes for Arizona, Utah, Washington and Oregon State, all undefeated from the Pac-12. They would really need to look good and hope for some help from 1-loss conference champions. The rest of these teams are the 1-loss power teams from the Power 5 that could win the rest of their schedule and conference then hope for a shake at the top. A few of these teams are just barely holding on here by a string, like USC, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas State

and the Big 10 teams (Ohio State and Michigan State), all 1 loss teams that would need a lot of help.

Cincinnati

Georgia Tech

Duke

Ohio State

Michigan State

Marshall

Washington

Oregon State

Stanford

Utah

Arizona

USC

South Carolina

Georgia

LSU

Florida

Kansas State

Teams Left Alive for the Playoff - Week 3

Teams Left Alive for the College Football Playoff

These are all the Power 5(and Independent) Teams still undefeated. The SEC has the most with 8. The Big 12 has 4.


Florida State
NC State
Pittsburgh
Kansas State
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Penn State
Nebraska
BYU
Notre Dame
Oregon
Arizona State
UCLA
Florida
Missouri
Ole Miss
Auburn
Texas A&M
Miss State
Alabama
LSU

Teams with an Outside Chance

These are undefeated teams either from lesser conferences or undefeated teams from the bottom half of the Power 5 that will need a lot of help. Or some of the Power 5 teams with one loss that could still come back and rise up the rankings and also win their conferences with only 1 loss.

Cincinnati
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Duke
North Carolina
Ohio State
Michigan State
Marshall
Northern Illinois
Cal
Washington
Oregon State
Stanford
Utah
Arizona
USC
South Carolina
Georgia
Arkansas

Shake-Up Saturday Top 25

Given the seismic shift last Saturday, I thought I'd totally start from scratch and fill in what I think is the Top 25. From what I could see of Florida State's dominance, they look better than Alabama all around. Oregon is still the best team in the country, but not by much. It's basically a 3 way tie for first in my mind. Then you have the other un-beatens and back to a Stanford team that was so dominant over a really good Bruin team. And how about that Baylor offense...and their defense?

Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. LSU
10. Louisville
11. Texas Tech
12. Clemson
13. UCLA
14. Texas A&M
15. Fresno State
16. Auburn
17. South Carolina
18. Northern Illinois
19. Wisconsin
20. Oklahoma
21. Oklahoma State
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan

Upsets of the Week

This was a very hard week to make picks, the season is getting into high gear and most of the powderpuff games are over....which means conference play is upon us. I have several conference game upsets picked for this week.

In the Big Ten I'm picking Indiana over Michigan State. The Spartans have not wowed me at all this year and they don't seem to be up to snuff in the weak Big 10. Also, I think Indiana is just really overdue for a big upset, and the way they're putting up stats, this could be the week.
Indiana 31 Michigan State 17

In the Pac-12, I have Oregon State over Washington State. I think this will be a very close game, I'm surprised the Cougars are the favorites, but the edge probably went to the home team. Both teams are doing great things on offense, but I think the Beavers have enough defense to stop Wazzu.
Oregon State 35 Washington State 33

Another Big Ten game, I'm picking Northwestern over Wisconsin. I think this one will be close also and could come down to the final drive, maybe even with Northwestern scoring a last second field goal or something. I just don't think Wisconsin is there yet, and Northwestern is a really strong team that will bounce back from the close lose last week to Ohio State.
Northwestern 24 Wisconsin 23

Down in the SEC, my huge big upset of the week. A team I was questioning why they were even ranked at all versus what is one of the best teams in the nation and a real National title hopeful. That's right....I'm picking the Tigers of Missouri over the Bulldogs of Georgia, the team I picked before the season started to win it all. Mainly it's because of all the injuries in the Bulldogs offense. Aaron Murray can't carry the whole team all alone, and Georgia's defense might not be able to handle the pace of Missouri, which is putting up outstanding numbers. This could be close, and Missouri will have to play lights out and flawless, but I think they'll pull it out.
Missouri 41 Georgia 31

Week 1 Top 25

After an actual week of football it is so much easier to see where teams are.

1. Alabama (1)
2. Oregon (2)
3. Clemson (5)
4. Stanford (4)
5. South Carolina (6)
6. Louisville (8)
7. LSU (10)
8. Georgia (3)
9. Ohio State (7)
10. Oklahoma (11)
11. Florida (9)
12. UCLA (12)
13. Michigan (14)
14. Texas (21)
15. Florida State (22)
16. Texas A&M (13)
17. Arizona State (19)
18. Oklahoma State (23)
19. USC (17)
20. Notre Dame (20)
21. Wisconsin (NR)
22. TCU (16)
23. Nebraska (15)
24. Miami (FL) (NR)
25. Washington (NR)

Georgia - Sadly had to move them down, not too far, though. I think they're still one of the Top 10 teams. The real lesson we learned from that game was how legitimate Clemson actually is. Of the top 5 they have the easiest path to an undefeated season.
South Carolina - They also looked great this week. They were a class above UNC and looked like they could honestly be contenders themselves.
LSU - Another team I had to move up. LSU looked like South Carolina, a class above their opponent, which is saying something because TCU actually was playing great, but just didn't have the talent of LSU.
Florida State - Dominant performance from their freshman QB. He's a future Heisman winner. The Seminoles have a really bright future, if not this year for certain, but this team is the future of the ACC. They weren't perfect, though, against a Pitt team that is better than mediocre, so they probably will still have some growing pains this year.

Subtractions - Pretty easy to nix Oregon State. Ouch. And Boise State was way over rated. I felt even putting them at 25 last week was way too high. They are going to struggle this year. Looks like Fresno State is not the team to beat in the MWC. Sadly, had to cut BYU. I still have high hopes, and we'll see this week with Texas, but just a devastating close lose to a mediocre Virginia squad.

Additions - Washington looked great in their trouncing of Boise St. Keith Price looked great, so good in fact the Huskies could pose a threat to Stanford and Oregon this year for the Pac-12.
Wisconsin was suspiciously missing from my Top 25 and it was because for me they were a question mark. I thin UMass isn't a very good test, but they shut them out. That's saying something.
Miami - 3rd best ACC team and most improved of the last few years. This could be the start of their comeback. I have some high hopes, and I'm actually picking them to upset Florida this week.

My Pre-Season Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Georgia
4. Stanford
5. Clemson
6. South Carolina
7. Ohio State
8. Louisville
9. Florida
10. LSU
11. Oklahoma
12. UCLA
13. Texas A&M
14. Michigan
15. Nebraska
16. TCU
17. USC
18. BYU
19. Arizona State
20. Notre Dame
21. Texas
22. Florida St
23. Oklahoma St
24. Oregon St
25. Boise St.

Others to mention:
Miami (Fl)
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Penn State
Washington
Ole Miss
Northern Illinois

Some notable changes from the AP Top 25.

1. I put UCLA higher. I think they're going to have a lot stronger team this year
2. ASU is higher, same as above, I think they're being over-looked right now and will end up winning the South.
3. BYU is on the list and pretty far up. They're going to have a tremendous year. They're my BCS busting pick. They return so much talent on both sides and have a new(much needed) Offensive Coordinator.
4. Georgia is higher. They could win it all. They have the best offense in the country and if their defense holds up, could go all the way.
5. Ohio State is way lower. I think they're very overrated. The Big 10 overall is a very poor conference right now.
6. Wisconsin and Northwestern are not on the list. The Big 10 is just not going to be great. Northwestern will be pretty good, but not great. Wisconsin is under a new coach and that should force them back a step. I do like Penn State, though, who under Bill O'Brien will surprise a lot of people again I'm sure.
7. Florida State is lower. Last year they were above mediocre and that was with an NFL quality QB.
8. TCU is higher. I think this could be the big break out for TCU to show they deserve their spot. They obviously have the best defense in the Big 12 and now they have some solid offensive talent returning, they could win that conference.
9. Texas A&M is lower. I think even if Johnny Football plays they'll take a step back. Off the field problems usually have a way of finding their way onto the field. They'll win a bunch of games, but then lose quite a few.

Predicting the Season: The Pac-12

Could be a very interesting year for the Pac-12. Two new coaches and quite a few 2nd year coaches.

California                      2-10
Northwestern                   L
Portland St                       W
Ohio State                         L
Oregon                              L
Washington St                  L
UCLA                             L
Oregon St                        L
Washington                     L
Arizona                           L
USC                               L
Colorado                        W
Stanford                          L

Sonny Dyke's first year will be extremely tough. He doesn't have much to work with, this could be a huge re-build. I imagine the Bears will have a lot of close games, including ones with Washington St, Oregon St, and maybe Arizona. I can't see where they get more than 2 wins.

Washington State     5-7
Auburn                   L
USC                       L
Southern Utah        W
Idaho                      W
Stanford                 L
California               W
Oregon St               L
Oregon                   L
Arizona St             L
Arizona                  W
Utah                       W
Washington            L

Mike Leach's tenure will make some improvements this season, and will probably earn a few upsets, but the rest of the North is just so much better than the Cougars still. They might be able to eek out another win to get bowl eligible, but it's hard to see where that comes from, since I'm already picking an upset over Arizona.

Oregon State              8-4
E Washington             W
Hawaii                        W
Utah                            W
SDSU                         W
Colorado                     W
Washington State        W
Cal                              W
Stanford                      L
USC                           L
Arizona State              L
Washington                W
Oregon                       L

I'll expect just about the same from last year's Beavers, only this time we'll see it coming. Easy first half of the season will give way to the brutal stretch in the 2nd half to their North Division rivals.

Washington             7-5
Boise St                    L
Illinois                      W
Idaho State               W
Arizona                    W
Stanford                   L
Oregon                    L
Arizona St               L
California                W
Colorado                 W
UCLA                     W
Oregon St                L
Washington St         W

Probably another pretty good season for the Huskies. They have Keith Price coming back and if the rest of the offense gels, they could make a better run. But the North elite are just so much ahead of them still. I predict in 2014 they will make a decent run finally at the Pac-12 North.

Oregon                 10-2
Nicholls St               W
Virginia                    W
Tennessee                W
California                 W
Colorado                  W
Washington             W
Washington St         W
UCLA                     L
Stanford                   L
Utah                        W
Arizona                   W
Oregon St                W

With Chip Kelly, this team wins the National Championship. With a new coach, albeit from within the same staff, they will lose to at least one sub-par team, I predict UCLA. The Bruins come to town a week before Stanford and UCLA will have made some really good strides from last year. The Ducks will slip up, then be over matched by Stanford the week after. After the Chip Kelly era, 10-2 will seem like a bad year, but in reality it will have been a great 1st year for Helfrich.

Stanford                12-1 (North Winner)
San Jose St                    W
Army                             W
Arizona St                     W
Washington St               W
Utah                              W
UCLA                           W
Oregon St                      W
Oregon                          W
USC                              W
California                      W
Notre Dame                  W
Pac-12 Championship   L

Until David Shaw leaves for the NFL someday, expect the Cardinal to keep doing what they're doing. They'll have a seasoned QB and a lot of offense and defense returning. They should win the whole league, but I'm betting on the underdog in that game. Still, Stanford will go to a BCS bowl.

Colorado                    3-9

Colorado St                  W

Cent Arkansas              W

Fresno St                       W

Oregon St                     L

Oregon                          L

Arizona St                     L

Arizona                         L

UCLA                          L

Washington                  L

California                     L

USC                            L

Utah                             L

Although starting 3-0, the Buffs won't fare very well in Pac-12 play. MacIntyre's first year will be rough, but Colorado should hopefully by competitive by the end of the season.

Utah                          3-9
Utah State                    W
Weber St                     W
Oregon State                L
BYU                            L
UCLA                         L
Stanford                       L
Arizona                       L
USC                            L
Arizona St                   L
Oregon                       L
Washington St            L
Colorado                    W

Utah won't do much better than last year, with the loss of their star defensive player. Utah was a mess at times last year, and this season will be rough for them to figure it out, ultimately the Utes just won't have the talent to compete as much with the rest of the South.

Arizona                       6-6
N Arizona                     W
UNLV                           W
UTSA                            W
Washington                   L
USC                              L
Utah                              W
Colorado                       W
California                      W
UCLA                           L
Washington St               L
Oregon                          L
Arizona St                     L

Rich Rod's second year should be a lot better, but that probably won't show up on paper. They should have some really close losses, to USC, Washington, Washington St and perhaps even UCLA. The Wildcats will need to vastly improve on defense to win more games, though.

USC                         10-3 (6-3)
Hawaii                          W
Washington St              W
Boston College             W
Utah St                          W
Arizona St                     L
Arizona                         W
Notre Dame                  W
Utah                              W
Oregon St                      W
California                      W
Stanford                         L
Colorado                       W
UCLA                           L

The beginning of the season should hopefully give the Trojans a chance to work their problems out. They still have so much talent, and their QB prospects looks hopeful. Some of these games will probably be really close. With Kiffin on the hot seat, hopefully that helps him get it together, and the re-structuring of the coaching staff will probably benefit them more than is realized. Their 3 losses should come from better teams than them, though.

UCLA                          8-4(6-3)
Nevada                         W
Nebraska                       L
New Mexico St             W
Utah                              W
California                      W
Stanford                         L
Oregon                          W
Colorado                       W
Arizona                         W
Washington                   L
Arizona St                     L
USC                              W

UCLA should be both improved and set back this year. They bring back some good talent, but also lose a bunch, and with some other teams on their schedule probably improving, they will stand to lose a few. They should also win some key upsets, like to USC and maybe a Duck team that's overlooking them for Stanford.

Arizona St                    11-1 (Pac-12 Winner)
Sacramento St                W
Wisconsin                       W
Stanford                          L
USC                               W
Notre Dame                    W
Colorado                         W
Washington                    W
Washington St                W
Utah                                W
Oregon St                       W
UCLA                            W
Arizona                          W
Pac-12 Championship    W

The Sun Devils have a lot of talent coming back, including their QB, who could end up being the best passer in the conference. Combine that with a generally weak South Division and Arizona State is geared to take the south. This is Todd Graham's 2nd year as coach, something that recent history has shown can be a magical year for a program.
In the rematch with Stanford it could really be a toss up, Stanford should win, but I'm betting on a heck of a game for the Sun Devils to upset the Cardinal and go to the Rose Bowl.

Predicting the Season - Mountain West

It may be a tad early, or not, to make some predictions about the coming football season, but here goes.
Starting with the Mountain West, here's how I see the season playing out, team for team.

UNLV                 1-10 (0-8)

Minnesota             L

Arizona                 L

Cent Michigan      L

W Illinois              W

New Mexico          L

Hawaii                   L

Fresno St                L

Nevada                   L

San Jose St              L

Air Force                 L

SDSU                     L

These guys are going to suck again. Bobby Hauck will be let go and someone else can take over the dumpster fire.

Hawaii                      2-10 (1-7)

USC                         L

Oregon St                 L

Nevada                      L

Fresno St                    L

San Jose St                 L

UNLV                       W

Colorado St                L

Utah St                        L

Navy                           L

SDSU                         L

Wyoming                    L

Army                          W

Although they might be better this year, I don't know how many wins they'll put out. Last year the Warriors were never competitive, and I can't see them making any giant leap forward.

San Jose State       6-6(4-4)

Sac State          W

Stanford            L

Minnesota         L

Utah State         L

Hawaii              W

Colorado St       W

Wyoming          W

UNLV               W

SDSU                 L

Nevada                L

Navy                  W

Fresno St            L

A couple of these games could be toss ups to be honest, so the Spartans could end up with a better record than this. It's hard to tell, though, because they'll be starting out with a whole new coach, and that usually puts back a program a few years. The Spartans under Mike Macintyre were starting to get somewhere finally after...ever. A new coaching staff will certainly set them back a notch or two.

Nevada            6-6(5-3)

UCLA              L

UC Davis         W

Florida St          L

Hawaii              W

Air Force          W

SDSU                L

Boise St             L

UNLV               W

Fresno St            L

Colorado St        W

San Jose St          W

BYU                   L

Nevada has a very tough out of conference schedule this year, and probably won't get a win versus an FBS school there. Besides that, the Wolf Pack also will have a new coaching staff to get used to after the retirement of their former legendary coach. They may earn a few more wins than this, they had a very potent offense last year, but they probably won't do much better than this.

Fresno St                8-4 (6-2)

Rutgers                   L

Cal Poly                 W

Colorado                 L

Boise St                   L

Hawaii                    W

Idaho                      W

UNLV                    W

SDSU                      L

Nevada                   W

Wyoming                W

New Mexico           W

San Jose St               W

Fresno St. should still be pretty decent this year. The SDSU game could go either way, but the Bulldogs are still growing, and last years bowl loss is a big sign of that. They'll also have some close games with Colorado, Rutgers and Boise St. Derek Carr is one of the best Non-BCS QB's in the country, but they still have some growing to do.

San Diego St            9-3 (7-1) (West Winner)

E Illinois                  W

Ohio St                     L

Oregon St                 L

NMSU                     W

Nevada                    W

Air Force                  W

Fresno St                 W

New Mexico            W

San Jose St              W

Hawaii                     W

Boise St                    L

UNLV                     W

My pick to win the West Division. SDSU will take the momentum from last year and Rocky Long's solid coaching. They lose some good players, but return quite a few. They'll lose once to Boise State during the season, then again in the Conference Championship.

Wyoming                   4-8 (1-7)

Nebraska                    L

Idaho                          W

N Colorado                W

Air Force                     L

Texas St                      W

New Mexico               L

Colorado St                 L

San Jose St                  L

Fresno St                     L

Boise St                       L

Hawaii                        W

Utah St                        L

The Cowboys will probably have another mediocre year. There's a lot of talent in the MWC and Wyoming won't have that much of it at all.

Air Force                  5-7 (2-6)

Colgate                     W

Utah St                       L

Boise St                      L

Wyoming                    W

Nevada                        L

Navy                           W

SDSU                           L

Notre Dame                  L

Army                            W

New Mexico                  L

UNLV                          W

Colorado State               L

They'll win some, they'll lose some. Mainly they'll get left behind with the better teams and probably will become just shy of being bowl eligible. Which is a good thing considering last year's hammering by Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Colorado St                 4-9(3-5)

Colorado                     L

Tulsa                           L

Cal Poly                     W

Alabama                      L

UTEP                          L

San Jose St                  L

Wyoming                    W

Hawaii                        W

Boise St                        L

Nevada                        L

New Mexico                L

Utah ST                       L

Air Force                     W

They play 13 games next season(from the Hawaii Exemption Rule), but that extra game probably won't help them get bowl eliglble. The Rams just need to become more consistent if they want to win more. They could be on the rise, but it might take another year to get the talent on track.

New Mexico            7-5 (4-4)

UTSA                     W

UTEP                      W

Pitt                           L

UNLV                     W

NMSU                     W

Wyoming                W

Utah St                     L

SDSU                      L

Air Force                W

Colorado St            W

Fresno St                 L

Boise St                   L

The Lobos will probably be the most improved team in the league, with Bob Davie getting them back into shape. They'll beat all the bottom teams, and probably all their non-conference games except Pitt. But their losses will come from the more talented teams in the league. This is going to be a team on the rise in the next few years.

Utah St                    8-4(7-1)

Utah                        L

Air Force                W

Weber St                 W

USC                        L

San Jose St             W

BYU                        L

Boise St                   L

New Mexico            W

Hawaii                     W

UNLV                     W

Colorado St             W

Wyoming                W

This was a very talented team last year. And if it wasn't for their coach leaving for Wisconsin, I'd pick them to win the MWC. But just like with the other 1st year head coaches, that will set them back a notch. But they have great talent returning, which will make them formidable, and only losing to Boise State.

Boise St                  11-1 (8-0) (MWC Winner)

Washington             W

Tenn Martin             W

Air Force                 W

Fresno St                  W

Southern Miss           W

Utah St                      W

Nevada                      W

BYU                          L

Colorado St               W

Wyoming                   W

SDSU                        W

New Mexico              W

The Broncos return some talent and QB Southwick could turn into the next great Boise St Quarterback. They quietly went 10-2 last year, including an upset by Almost Big East Rival SDSU. This is going to be BYU's year, which means their defense will hold back the Broncos emerging offense and the Cougars emerging offense will undo the Broncos pretty decent defense.