Bowl Picks!!!

Here's my Bowl Picks for this season, with some explanations and reasonings behind picking from High to Least Confident.
Things I look for in a Bowl Pick
1. Was the coach fired? (Purdue)
2. Did the coach leave? And if so, how much of his staff is gone? (Cincinnatti, San Jose State...)
3. Did they squeak into bowl eligibility? (Iowa St, SMU, GT)
4. Did they get better over the year or seem to get worse? (Arizona St(better), Nebraska(worse))
5. How excited are they to be there? (Northern Illinois)
6. How does the win/loss compare between the two teams? (VT v Rutgers)
7. Finally after all that, how good do the teams compare on paper?

35. Capital One - Georgia over Nebraska. Nebraska fell apart several times this year, most notably in the Big 10 title game. Georgia will be coming off an emotional loss in their title game and besides all the talent that got them 5 yards away from playing in the National Championship, they'll be fired up to redeem themselves and get that bitter taste out of their mouth. Bo Pelini is not a good Bowl coach and I can't imagine he'll be able to fire up his guys, or give them the mouthwash motivation to get the bitter taste of losing out of their mouths. They'll carry that bitter taste all the way till next year. (Earliest pick for 2013 Coach getting fired: Pelini and Nebraska get to 6-6 and Pelini is fired.)

34. - Fight Hunger - Arizona State over Navy. Simple reason: Arizona State has gotten better and better and better this year. They're excited after their climactic rivalry finale over Arizona. And Navy isn't that great this year.

33. Heart of Dallas - Oklahoma State over Purdue - Another easy pick. Ok State is actually pretty good this year. Purdue barely squeaked in and their coach got fired. Not much motivation against a stronger team that wants to gain a lot more experience since they're awfully young.

32. Sun - USC over Georgia Tech - Motivation might be a factor, but USC seems to always play great in whatever bowl they get to. Barkley will shine, there will be a lot of smiles on the sidelines as the Trojans try to maintain their pride and show why they're awesome. Also, the Yellow Jackets don't belong here, they're here because of 2 ineligible teams ahead of them.

31. Hawaii - Fresno State over SMU - Fresno State is pretty good this year. They want to be here, and this is a great way to build on their success. SMU is mediocre.

30. Idaho Potato - Utah State over Toledo - Utah State has been dominant this year. Also, there's something to say about the school that's closer. Utah State is just a few hours drive to Boise, they'll have a lot of fans there.

29. Pinstripe - West Virginia over Syracuse - Old conference rivalry. Syracuse beat them last. But I don't think the Mountaineers will care, they've moved on to the Big 12. This one comes down to who is better, and West Virginia is the better team.

28. Outback - South Carolina over Michigan - This actually might be a close one. But I doubt it. South Carolina represents SEC, and this game will show their dominance over the Big 10. But don't count out Denard's last game, if he's playing great whatever position he's in, Michigan can hang in there.





27. Independence - LA Monroe over Ohio - ULM's first bowl game ever. That should be enough. Plus, Ohio started out great this season garnering some BCS busting talk, but finished by losing 4 of their last 5 games.
26. New Mexico - Arizona over Nevada - Could be one of the more fun games to watch. This game has the nation's 2 best rushers going head to head. But Arizona has gotten better and better with Rich Rod's offense, so I think the Wildcats pull away.
25. Sugar - Florida over Louisville - Louisville is probably more motivated to be here, so it could be close, this may even be an upset. But instinct just says Florida will take care of business. They're offense has been good at times but it's their defense that will keep Louisville out of this game.

24. Chik-fil-A - LSU over Clemson - More chance for the SEC to show their dominance. Unless Clemson plays their hearts out, which probably won't happen as this was a slightly disappointing year for them.





23. Liberty - Tulsa over Iowa State - Should be a good game. But Tulsa has been playing strong, I think they carry that over to the bowl.
22. Poinsettia - San Diego State over BYU - 1st upset pick! No surprise. But it comes down to a couple of things. SDSU has gotten better over the year, BYU has been stagnant, especially on offense. SDSU is more excited to be here, for BYU this is just another average bowl. Both have strong defenses, but only the Aztecs have a good offense. Should be close, but I see SDSU beating their old conference rivals.

21. Rose - Stanford over Wisconsin - It must have hurt for the Badgers when Bret Bielema left, when it seemed like he was probably going to be a lifer. But then balance that with being coached by Barry Alvarez? Stanford won't have any of those debates or distractions. They won the Pac-12, which is more than they were supposed to do this year. Wisconsin has gotten better over the year, but Stanford has stayed good through the entire year.

20. Fiesta - Oregon over Kansas State - Could be the most fun game. The What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Will probably be a close game till the 4th when Oregon finally pulls away. K-State got so close, but failed and that may be what lets their steam die out. Oregon has a younger team that still needs to prove itself, that will keep them going.



19. BCS National Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - Probably another close game. But it will come down to the offense here, since both of these teams have great defenses. Notre Dame seemed to be destined to play here, but there are a lot of teams that seemed destined, but fell short.

18. Military - San Jose St over Bowling Green - Big toss up. Who is Bowling Green and how are they bowl eligible? San Jose State is a huge surprise this year, but they also just lost their coach.






17. Belk - Cincinnati over Duke - Cincinnati is the more talented team. Duke will just be happy to be here after decades without a bowl.
16. Music City - Vanderbilt over NC State - How would it feel to get to a bowl game but your coach got fired? Vanderbilt will be way more motivated and better coached.
15. Little Caesars - Western Kentucky over Central Michigan - The Hilltoppers are in their first bowl game as an FBS school. Doesn't mean much, but that excitement is probably what will keep them ahead, as well as the excitement of where the program is headed. Central Michigan won their last 3 games to become bowl eligible, but history has shown once a team gets that goal, they usually trail off without another clear goal.

14. Alamo - Oregon State over Texas - The Big 12 has had the Pac-12's number in recent bowl games, but that changes this year. I'm predicting a Pac-12 sweep of the Big 12. Oregon State seems to be grat this year, and Texas is having another mediocre year. The Longhorns will also be without their offensive coordinator.




13. Armed Forces - Air Force over Rice - First of the who knows games. I think Air Force is usually a consistent and tricky team to play. Rice seems to have barely squeaked in here and maybe just happy to be in a bowl.
12. BBVA Compass - Pittsburgh over Ole Miss - Ole Miss is lucky to be here, while Pitt is maybe the most improved team in the country. Ole Miss is pretty improved also, and their win over rival Mississippi State was impressive, but I think Pitt is well rounded enough to win this one.
11. Cotton - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - This is where the list starts to get murky. The easy choice would be to go with the Heisman winner. But Oklahoma is a darn solid team when they want to be. Maybe the Sooners want to show their old conference foe that the Big 12 is better, or maybe they want to take a shot at Johnny Football. I think he pulls it out, though, pulls Oklahoma's pants down and goes into the off-season ready to start next year ranked in the top 5.

10. Meineke Car Care - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I hardly ever bet on Minnesota to win anything. They just seem to be the Bad News Bears for some reason. I don't think their program is totally turned around yet, and the Red Raiders have too much talent. Despite their coach leaving, the excitement of their year will probably help propel them to the win. Also, Tech's defense is way better than the Gophers offense.


9. GoDaddy.com - Kent State over Arkansas State - Who knows on this one. Both coach's left for bigger jobs. But I think Malzahn leaving AK State will be more detrimental than Kent State coach, mainly because it seems like Kent State is built on discipline and toughness, while the Red Wolves are just all flash.

8. Russell Athletic - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - Rutgers should win this. Should is the optimal word. Will they? Who knows. The Hokies were awful this year and barely got here, while the Scarlet Knights are having a great season. Virginia Tech should lose.





7. Holiday - UCLA over Baylor - This might be the Alamo Bowl from last year when Baylor and Washington each scored a thousand points. It probably won't, though. UCLA has a decent defense. It will probably be close, which is why I'm not giving much confidence to it. I've liked Baylor this year, it's too bad Nick Florence only has one year as the starting quarterback. When it doubt, go with the better team. UCLA seems like the better team.
6. Las Vegas - Washington over Boise State - Another should. Washington should win this game. Boise State is going to yet another Las Vegas Bowl, and this time around they're going with their most mediocre team since probably 2008. Washington has been shaky all year, though, and the Broncos might still have some magic in them to pull the upset.

5. Gator - Northwestern over Miss State - I think they'll finally do it. Win a Bowl game for the first time since Truman was President. Mississippi State might be better, though, it's hard to tell. I'm going with discipline on this one, though. The Wildcats are more disciplined than the Bulldogs and in close games that can make the difference. The deciding factor will be, does Miss State's offense show up.

4. New Orleans - LA Lafayette over East Carolina - Who the heck knows. Lafayette took Florida to the end and only lost on a miracle blocked punt, so I'll take them.

3. Beef O' Brady's - Ball State over UCF - Complete toss up. I'd have to actually look up stats to see who is better. Central Florida lost a heartbreaker in the Conference USA title game, maybe that's what will get their spirits low. Ball State is having a great year as well, that's what could do it for them.





2. Orange - Northern Illinois over Florida State - Going with the big upset here. Should hopefully be a fun game. NIU will probably throw everything they have at the Seminoles, and the Seminoles may get lazy. This will be the Huskies toughest defense. But guess what, Oklahoma was Boise State's toughest defense in the Fiesta Bowl.
1. Buffalo Wild Wings - Michigan State over TCU - This is so low on the confidence because I have no faith in Michigan State to win this. TCU is a young team, with some proving to do. But the Spartans are far more talented. Could be a close defensive game, but MSU comes out barely on top.

Could the Pac-12 expand?

Expansion frenzy is back. The Big 10 just scooped up Maryland and Rutgers. Why? They aren't really football powerhouses. Rutgers has only had a handful of winning seasons in its 100 plus years of football. The obviously expanded for the markets and footprints into the encroaching ACC. And there was maybe a little fear of being left behind in the CFB realignment and expansion madness that's going on.
Still...Maryland and Rutgers? They could have done better. But snapping up a school from another AQ conference isn't that easy. It's even harder when you're in a region with no overlap with other AQ conferences, and the number of schools you could pick up is few. The one conference with that issue is the Pac-12.
They now reach from the state of Washington way up in the northwest, down the coast to Southern California, across the desert of Arizona, and inland to Utah and Colorado. The two states with FBS schools they're skipping over.....Nevada and Idaho. The next closest states with FBS schools....Wyoming, New Mexico and I guess Hawaii. Then there's the states with FBS schools and with schools in the conference; California, Utah, and Colorado.
Beyond that is Texas and the mid-west, Big 12 country.
In that footprint there's Boise State, Idaho, Utah State, BYU, Wyoming, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Hawaii, Colorado State, and Air Force.
There's two big criteria that would keep a school out: academically respected research university and tradition of winning.

First the easy eliminations; the schools without any tradition of winning:
Wyoming, Idaho, UNLV, San Jose State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Colorado State. These schools haven't won anything ever in football, at least not in any consistency.

What's left are some schools on the cusp, but each has a reason for not having a chance. In order from the lowest chances first.

Air Force - A unique institution, but doesn't fit with the Pac-12 university culture. Has had a decent football program over the years, but never worthy of big consideration.
Utah State - they've won before, and just won the WAC. But not a consistent program. Also, it's a lowly state school in a state with two huge universities that overshadow them.
Fresno State - This is a program that's been on the cusp of being a Boise State, but could never continue winning. Also, a lowly California State school with low academics.
Hawaii - They've been to a BCS bowl. That's the one and only reason for being considered. But it ends there, the university isn't academically known and their football program has not ever held it's consistency. They were atrocious this year and could take a long time to come back.
San Diego State - A long time football school with similar attributes to Fresno State. Has been consistent the last few years, but wasn't decent since the 90's. The only Cal State school to be ranked nationally by US News and World Report, and is the largest research university of the Cal State schools. But it's still a lower state school, and the tradition of winning isn't there yet.
Boise State - The winning tradition is there. But what holds Boise State back is their academic standings. They don't rank nationally academically, and aren't considered a strong research university. The conference may be willing to overlook that to bring in such a strong football program, but it's unlikely.
Nevada - What Boise State is lacking, Nevada fills in, they are nationally ranked academically and as a research insitution. They're the biggest and most prestigious school in their state as well. But they do lag behind in being a consistently winning football powerhouse. They've only been an FBS school since 1992(longer than Boise State, btw.) But they've also had the luck to beat some Pac-12 schools over the years all the way back to the 1920s. They've been to a bowl game and had a winning record every year since 2005. All this points to an outside chance that Nevada could quite possibly be considered. If, like Utah, they'd been to a BCS bowl, it would be far more likely.
BYU - They haven't been to a BCS bowl, but they have won a National Championship, in 1984. BYU has a huge and long football tradition dating back decades, with a few Heisman winners as well. They also don't do too bad in the academics as well, ranking in the top 100 on US News and World Report's national rankings, higher than a few current Pac-12 schools and any other school on this list. What would hold them back? That darn BYUtv channel and BYU insistence on keeping their TV rights. But is that more important than getting into a conference? There's rumors going around that BYU might go back to the Mountain West, where they could gain access to a post-BCS AQ bowl. With that in mind, BYU may consider giving up some TV rights for a chance to not only get into an AQ conference, but also to stay on the same footing as their arch rival Utah.

So is the Pac-12 stuck with these schools? Could they reach over the mountains and pluck a Texas school or someone from the Mid-West? Looking at the map, that's a huge stretch. None of the major Texas schools would go, not now that the Big-12 is back to solid footing and none would want to leave the close embrace of Daddy Longhorns. Oklahoma and OK State would be just as tough to pull away, they seem awfully content sitting alongside the Texas schools. So then up the line.....the state of Kansas? Would the Pacific-12 conference want a school from Kansas? Either of those schools might listen to a better deal than staying in the shadow of Texas and Oklahoma, but they probably would listen to reason and stay with the regional league.

So it seems...if the Pac-12 ever wants to keep up with the Jones' back east and go to 14....they're going to have to stick to their neighborhood and either 1. Break with their requirements and let in an academically inferior school or 2. Take the two best teams and hope that the mere fact that they're in the Pac-12 makes them better. Just like it seems to have done for Utah and Colorado, right?

End of the Year: How We Got Here Part 1

First off. Bravo to Northern Illinois. Screw all the ESPN analysts and bloggers out there poo poo'ing the Huskies for somehow ruining all of the BCS and college football.
They ARE the reason for the BCS. They're the reason the post-season can be interesting in the BCS era.
We should not be blaming NIU or even the BCS for how the final BCS bowls got filled out. That blame falls on all of college football for a very mediocre year.
Here's how NIU got where they got and why everyone is so pissed.

1. Overall it's been a very mediocre and down year in college football. I'll explore that more later in it's own section. But for now, if either the Big East or Big Ten had been decent, the most deserving teams would have made the BCS bowls, because their champions would have been ranked appropriately. But because there was so much mediocrity, teams like Kent State and Northern Illinois were able to reach so high in the BCS standings.
2. The MAC was actually pretty good this year. And that's been a few years in the making. The last few years the MAC has been getting better and better. And NIU has been at the lead, winning the last two MAC championships. They beat a lot of AQ teams this year, and they have shown their talent throughout the whole year. They've taken advantage of a down Big Ten/ACC/ and Big East to win some games, and even took advantage of a Mountain West conference with no real dominant team, to step up and take the spotlight.
3. But....here's the real reason why everyone is up in arms. NIU isn't undefeated this year. They lost their season opener to a sucky Iowa, and because of that were never on the radar as a BCS buster. If we look back on the year, people were wondering who was going to be this year's BCS buster. In the preseason, Boise State was ranked high despite having lost some really solid talent. Really, it was their name and program that provided the ranking, and kept them ranked all year despite losing two games. BYU was the other team mentioned, and who was going to play big games with Oregon State, Utah and Notre Dame. Besides the Beaver blow out, BYU had quite a few close games with good teams, but they never got their offense going. Then there was Ohio, who beat Penn State the opening week. They got some ranking and buzz, but then they started losing. Then there was Louisiana Tech who seemed to be having a great year with their wild offense. They lost a close one to Texas A&M, in a rescheduled game that they may have won if it was at the beginning of the year. But they fell out of the rankings, and for good reason they didn't even take 2nd place in the WAC. But then down the stretch Kent State got into the rankings somehow because they kept winning (except a huge loss to Kentucky). Winning all the way to the end, then losing the MAC championship to Northern Illinois. The same Northern Illinois that somehow snuck into the BCS rankings quietly behind Kent State.
If Northern Illinois had been ranked from the beginning of the season, no one would be pissing and moaning. If by week 5 or 6 NIU peaked into the rankings they would have stayed there till now. And they would be ranked higher than they are now, maybe in the top 10.
Hopefully this will turn out like Boise State-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl and not Hawaii-Georgia Sugar Bowl.
4. Best Bowl of the Season: Poinsettia Bowl!!!! The San Diego State did what no sports writer thought they'd do in the pre-season: Win the Mountain West. SDSU has come a long way. Thanks to Brady Hoke for laying a foundation of work ethic and winning. Then Rocky Long for continuing that, and for making defense important. The Aztecs defense is what won games this year. And their offense hasn't been bad either. The future looks bright, if they end up staying in the Mountain West or going to the Big East, the culture has changed on Montezuma Mesa.