Bowl Picks!!!

Here's my Bowl Picks for this season, with some explanations and reasonings behind picking from High to Least Confident.
Things I look for in a Bowl Pick
1. Was the coach fired? (Purdue)
2. Did the coach leave? And if so, how much of his staff is gone? (Cincinnatti, San Jose State...)
3. Did they squeak into bowl eligibility? (Iowa St, SMU, GT)
4. Did they get better over the year or seem to get worse? (Arizona St(better), Nebraska(worse))
5. How excited are they to be there? (Northern Illinois)
6. How does the win/loss compare between the two teams? (VT v Rutgers)
7. Finally after all that, how good do the teams compare on paper?

35. Capital One - Georgia over Nebraska. Nebraska fell apart several times this year, most notably in the Big 10 title game. Georgia will be coming off an emotional loss in their title game and besides all the talent that got them 5 yards away from playing in the National Championship, they'll be fired up to redeem themselves and get that bitter taste out of their mouth. Bo Pelini is not a good Bowl coach and I can't imagine he'll be able to fire up his guys, or give them the mouthwash motivation to get the bitter taste of losing out of their mouths. They'll carry that bitter taste all the way till next year. (Earliest pick for 2013 Coach getting fired: Pelini and Nebraska get to 6-6 and Pelini is fired.)

34. - Fight Hunger - Arizona State over Navy. Simple reason: Arizona State has gotten better and better and better this year. They're excited after their climactic rivalry finale over Arizona. And Navy isn't that great this year.

33. Heart of Dallas - Oklahoma State over Purdue - Another easy pick. Ok State is actually pretty good this year. Purdue barely squeaked in and their coach got fired. Not much motivation against a stronger team that wants to gain a lot more experience since they're awfully young.

32. Sun - USC over Georgia Tech - Motivation might be a factor, but USC seems to always play great in whatever bowl they get to. Barkley will shine, there will be a lot of smiles on the sidelines as the Trojans try to maintain their pride and show why they're awesome. Also, the Yellow Jackets don't belong here, they're here because of 2 ineligible teams ahead of them.

31. Hawaii - Fresno State over SMU - Fresno State is pretty good this year. They want to be here, and this is a great way to build on their success. SMU is mediocre.

30. Idaho Potato - Utah State over Toledo - Utah State has been dominant this year. Also, there's something to say about the school that's closer. Utah State is just a few hours drive to Boise, they'll have a lot of fans there.

29. Pinstripe - West Virginia over Syracuse - Old conference rivalry. Syracuse beat them last. But I don't think the Mountaineers will care, they've moved on to the Big 12. This one comes down to who is better, and West Virginia is the better team.

28. Outback - South Carolina over Michigan - This actually might be a close one. But I doubt it. South Carolina represents SEC, and this game will show their dominance over the Big 10. But don't count out Denard's last game, if he's playing great whatever position he's in, Michigan can hang in there.





27. Independence - LA Monroe over Ohio - ULM's first bowl game ever. That should be enough. Plus, Ohio started out great this season garnering some BCS busting talk, but finished by losing 4 of their last 5 games.
26. New Mexico - Arizona over Nevada - Could be one of the more fun games to watch. This game has the nation's 2 best rushers going head to head. But Arizona has gotten better and better with Rich Rod's offense, so I think the Wildcats pull away.
25. Sugar - Florida over Louisville - Louisville is probably more motivated to be here, so it could be close, this may even be an upset. But instinct just says Florida will take care of business. They're offense has been good at times but it's their defense that will keep Louisville out of this game.

24. Chik-fil-A - LSU over Clemson - More chance for the SEC to show their dominance. Unless Clemson plays their hearts out, which probably won't happen as this was a slightly disappointing year for them.





23. Liberty - Tulsa over Iowa State - Should be a good game. But Tulsa has been playing strong, I think they carry that over to the bowl.
22. Poinsettia - San Diego State over BYU - 1st upset pick! No surprise. But it comes down to a couple of things. SDSU has gotten better over the year, BYU has been stagnant, especially on offense. SDSU is more excited to be here, for BYU this is just another average bowl. Both have strong defenses, but only the Aztecs have a good offense. Should be close, but I see SDSU beating their old conference rivals.

21. Rose - Stanford over Wisconsin - It must have hurt for the Badgers when Bret Bielema left, when it seemed like he was probably going to be a lifer. But then balance that with being coached by Barry Alvarez? Stanford won't have any of those debates or distractions. They won the Pac-12, which is more than they were supposed to do this year. Wisconsin has gotten better over the year, but Stanford has stayed good through the entire year.

20. Fiesta - Oregon over Kansas State - Could be the most fun game. The What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Will probably be a close game till the 4th when Oregon finally pulls away. K-State got so close, but failed and that may be what lets their steam die out. Oregon has a younger team that still needs to prove itself, that will keep them going.



19. BCS National Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - Probably another close game. But it will come down to the offense here, since both of these teams have great defenses. Notre Dame seemed to be destined to play here, but there are a lot of teams that seemed destined, but fell short.

18. Military - San Jose St over Bowling Green - Big toss up. Who is Bowling Green and how are they bowl eligible? San Jose State is a huge surprise this year, but they also just lost their coach.






17. Belk - Cincinnati over Duke - Cincinnati is the more talented team. Duke will just be happy to be here after decades without a bowl.
16. Music City - Vanderbilt over NC State - How would it feel to get to a bowl game but your coach got fired? Vanderbilt will be way more motivated and better coached.
15. Little Caesars - Western Kentucky over Central Michigan - The Hilltoppers are in their first bowl game as an FBS school. Doesn't mean much, but that excitement is probably what will keep them ahead, as well as the excitement of where the program is headed. Central Michigan won their last 3 games to become bowl eligible, but history has shown once a team gets that goal, they usually trail off without another clear goal.

14. Alamo - Oregon State over Texas - The Big 12 has had the Pac-12's number in recent bowl games, but that changes this year. I'm predicting a Pac-12 sweep of the Big 12. Oregon State seems to be grat this year, and Texas is having another mediocre year. The Longhorns will also be without their offensive coordinator.




13. Armed Forces - Air Force over Rice - First of the who knows games. I think Air Force is usually a consistent and tricky team to play. Rice seems to have barely squeaked in here and maybe just happy to be in a bowl.
12. BBVA Compass - Pittsburgh over Ole Miss - Ole Miss is lucky to be here, while Pitt is maybe the most improved team in the country. Ole Miss is pretty improved also, and their win over rival Mississippi State was impressive, but I think Pitt is well rounded enough to win this one.
11. Cotton - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - This is where the list starts to get murky. The easy choice would be to go with the Heisman winner. But Oklahoma is a darn solid team when they want to be. Maybe the Sooners want to show their old conference foe that the Big 12 is better, or maybe they want to take a shot at Johnny Football. I think he pulls it out, though, pulls Oklahoma's pants down and goes into the off-season ready to start next year ranked in the top 5.

10. Meineke Car Care - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I hardly ever bet on Minnesota to win anything. They just seem to be the Bad News Bears for some reason. I don't think their program is totally turned around yet, and the Red Raiders have too much talent. Despite their coach leaving, the excitement of their year will probably help propel them to the win. Also, Tech's defense is way better than the Gophers offense.


9. GoDaddy.com - Kent State over Arkansas State - Who knows on this one. Both coach's left for bigger jobs. But I think Malzahn leaving AK State will be more detrimental than Kent State coach, mainly because it seems like Kent State is built on discipline and toughness, while the Red Wolves are just all flash.

8. Russell Athletic - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - Rutgers should win this. Should is the optimal word. Will they? Who knows. The Hokies were awful this year and barely got here, while the Scarlet Knights are having a great season. Virginia Tech should lose.





7. Holiday - UCLA over Baylor - This might be the Alamo Bowl from last year when Baylor and Washington each scored a thousand points. It probably won't, though. UCLA has a decent defense. It will probably be close, which is why I'm not giving much confidence to it. I've liked Baylor this year, it's too bad Nick Florence only has one year as the starting quarterback. When it doubt, go with the better team. UCLA seems like the better team.
6. Las Vegas - Washington over Boise State - Another should. Washington should win this game. Boise State is going to yet another Las Vegas Bowl, and this time around they're going with their most mediocre team since probably 2008. Washington has been shaky all year, though, and the Broncos might still have some magic in them to pull the upset.

5. Gator - Northwestern over Miss State - I think they'll finally do it. Win a Bowl game for the first time since Truman was President. Mississippi State might be better, though, it's hard to tell. I'm going with discipline on this one, though. The Wildcats are more disciplined than the Bulldogs and in close games that can make the difference. The deciding factor will be, does Miss State's offense show up.

4. New Orleans - LA Lafayette over East Carolina - Who the heck knows. Lafayette took Florida to the end and only lost on a miracle blocked punt, so I'll take them.

3. Beef O' Brady's - Ball State over UCF - Complete toss up. I'd have to actually look up stats to see who is better. Central Florida lost a heartbreaker in the Conference USA title game, maybe that's what will get their spirits low. Ball State is having a great year as well, that's what could do it for them.





2. Orange - Northern Illinois over Florida State - Going with the big upset here. Should hopefully be a fun game. NIU will probably throw everything they have at the Seminoles, and the Seminoles may get lazy. This will be the Huskies toughest defense. But guess what, Oklahoma was Boise State's toughest defense in the Fiesta Bowl.
1. Buffalo Wild Wings - Michigan State over TCU - This is so low on the confidence because I have no faith in Michigan State to win this. TCU is a young team, with some proving to do. But the Spartans are far more talented. Could be a close defensive game, but MSU comes out barely on top.

Could the Pac-12 expand?

Expansion frenzy is back. The Big 10 just scooped up Maryland and Rutgers. Why? They aren't really football powerhouses. Rutgers has only had a handful of winning seasons in its 100 plus years of football. The obviously expanded for the markets and footprints into the encroaching ACC. And there was maybe a little fear of being left behind in the CFB realignment and expansion madness that's going on.
Still...Maryland and Rutgers? They could have done better. But snapping up a school from another AQ conference isn't that easy. It's even harder when you're in a region with no overlap with other AQ conferences, and the number of schools you could pick up is few. The one conference with that issue is the Pac-12.
They now reach from the state of Washington way up in the northwest, down the coast to Southern California, across the desert of Arizona, and inland to Utah and Colorado. The two states with FBS schools they're skipping over.....Nevada and Idaho. The next closest states with FBS schools....Wyoming, New Mexico and I guess Hawaii. Then there's the states with FBS schools and with schools in the conference; California, Utah, and Colorado.
Beyond that is Texas and the mid-west, Big 12 country.
In that footprint there's Boise State, Idaho, Utah State, BYU, Wyoming, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Hawaii, Colorado State, and Air Force.
There's two big criteria that would keep a school out: academically respected research university and tradition of winning.

First the easy eliminations; the schools without any tradition of winning:
Wyoming, Idaho, UNLV, San Jose State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Colorado State. These schools haven't won anything ever in football, at least not in any consistency.

What's left are some schools on the cusp, but each has a reason for not having a chance. In order from the lowest chances first.

Air Force - A unique institution, but doesn't fit with the Pac-12 university culture. Has had a decent football program over the years, but never worthy of big consideration.
Utah State - they've won before, and just won the WAC. But not a consistent program. Also, it's a lowly state school in a state with two huge universities that overshadow them.
Fresno State - This is a program that's been on the cusp of being a Boise State, but could never continue winning. Also, a lowly California State school with low academics.
Hawaii - They've been to a BCS bowl. That's the one and only reason for being considered. But it ends there, the university isn't academically known and their football program has not ever held it's consistency. They were atrocious this year and could take a long time to come back.
San Diego State - A long time football school with similar attributes to Fresno State. Has been consistent the last few years, but wasn't decent since the 90's. The only Cal State school to be ranked nationally by US News and World Report, and is the largest research university of the Cal State schools. But it's still a lower state school, and the tradition of winning isn't there yet.
Boise State - The winning tradition is there. But what holds Boise State back is their academic standings. They don't rank nationally academically, and aren't considered a strong research university. The conference may be willing to overlook that to bring in such a strong football program, but it's unlikely.
Nevada - What Boise State is lacking, Nevada fills in, they are nationally ranked academically and as a research insitution. They're the biggest and most prestigious school in their state as well. But they do lag behind in being a consistently winning football powerhouse. They've only been an FBS school since 1992(longer than Boise State, btw.) But they've also had the luck to beat some Pac-12 schools over the years all the way back to the 1920s. They've been to a bowl game and had a winning record every year since 2005. All this points to an outside chance that Nevada could quite possibly be considered. If, like Utah, they'd been to a BCS bowl, it would be far more likely.
BYU - They haven't been to a BCS bowl, but they have won a National Championship, in 1984. BYU has a huge and long football tradition dating back decades, with a few Heisman winners as well. They also don't do too bad in the academics as well, ranking in the top 100 on US News and World Report's national rankings, higher than a few current Pac-12 schools and any other school on this list. What would hold them back? That darn BYUtv channel and BYU insistence on keeping their TV rights. But is that more important than getting into a conference? There's rumors going around that BYU might go back to the Mountain West, where they could gain access to a post-BCS AQ bowl. With that in mind, BYU may consider giving up some TV rights for a chance to not only get into an AQ conference, but also to stay on the same footing as their arch rival Utah.

So is the Pac-12 stuck with these schools? Could they reach over the mountains and pluck a Texas school or someone from the Mid-West? Looking at the map, that's a huge stretch. None of the major Texas schools would go, not now that the Big-12 is back to solid footing and none would want to leave the close embrace of Daddy Longhorns. Oklahoma and OK State would be just as tough to pull away, they seem awfully content sitting alongside the Texas schools. So then up the line.....the state of Kansas? Would the Pacific-12 conference want a school from Kansas? Either of those schools might listen to a better deal than staying in the shadow of Texas and Oklahoma, but they probably would listen to reason and stay with the regional league.

So it seems...if the Pac-12 ever wants to keep up with the Jones' back east and go to 14....they're going to have to stick to their neighborhood and either 1. Break with their requirements and let in an academically inferior school or 2. Take the two best teams and hope that the mere fact that they're in the Pac-12 makes them better. Just like it seems to have done for Utah and Colorado, right?

End of the Year: How We Got Here Part 1

First off. Bravo to Northern Illinois. Screw all the ESPN analysts and bloggers out there poo poo'ing the Huskies for somehow ruining all of the BCS and college football.
They ARE the reason for the BCS. They're the reason the post-season can be interesting in the BCS era.
We should not be blaming NIU or even the BCS for how the final BCS bowls got filled out. That blame falls on all of college football for a very mediocre year.
Here's how NIU got where they got and why everyone is so pissed.

1. Overall it's been a very mediocre and down year in college football. I'll explore that more later in it's own section. But for now, if either the Big East or Big Ten had been decent, the most deserving teams would have made the BCS bowls, because their champions would have been ranked appropriately. But because there was so much mediocrity, teams like Kent State and Northern Illinois were able to reach so high in the BCS standings.
2. The MAC was actually pretty good this year. And that's been a few years in the making. The last few years the MAC has been getting better and better. And NIU has been at the lead, winning the last two MAC championships. They beat a lot of AQ teams this year, and they have shown their talent throughout the whole year. They've taken advantage of a down Big Ten/ACC/ and Big East to win some games, and even took advantage of a Mountain West conference with no real dominant team, to step up and take the spotlight.
3. But....here's the real reason why everyone is up in arms. NIU isn't undefeated this year. They lost their season opener to a sucky Iowa, and because of that were never on the radar as a BCS buster. If we look back on the year, people were wondering who was going to be this year's BCS buster. In the preseason, Boise State was ranked high despite having lost some really solid talent. Really, it was their name and program that provided the ranking, and kept them ranked all year despite losing two games. BYU was the other team mentioned, and who was going to play big games with Oregon State, Utah and Notre Dame. Besides the Beaver blow out, BYU had quite a few close games with good teams, but they never got their offense going. Then there was Ohio, who beat Penn State the opening week. They got some ranking and buzz, but then they started losing. Then there was Louisiana Tech who seemed to be having a great year with their wild offense. They lost a close one to Texas A&M, in a rescheduled game that they may have won if it was at the beginning of the year. But they fell out of the rankings, and for good reason they didn't even take 2nd place in the WAC. But then down the stretch Kent State got into the rankings somehow because they kept winning (except a huge loss to Kentucky). Winning all the way to the end, then losing the MAC championship to Northern Illinois. The same Northern Illinois that somehow snuck into the BCS rankings quietly behind Kent State.
If Northern Illinois had been ranked from the beginning of the season, no one would be pissing and moaning. If by week 5 or 6 NIU peaked into the rankings they would have stayed there till now. And they would be ranked higher than they are now, maybe in the top 10.
Hopefully this will turn out like Boise State-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl and not Hawaii-Georgia Sugar Bowl.
4. Best Bowl of the Season: Poinsettia Bowl!!!! The San Diego State did what no sports writer thought they'd do in the pre-season: Win the Mountain West. SDSU has come a long way. Thanks to Brady Hoke for laying a foundation of work ethic and winning. Then Rocky Long for continuing that, and for making defense important. The Aztecs defense is what won games this year. And their offense hasn't been bad either. The future looks bright, if they end up staying in the Mountain West or going to the Big East, the culture has changed on Montezuma Mesa.

USC versus UCLA - two programs headed in two different directions

The classic LA rivalry game wasn't decided yesterday when Matt Barkley went down in the 4th quarter with 2 minutes left. It wasn't decided when UCLA decisively pulled ahead by 10 in the 4th or when UCLA was up by 24 points before USC ever scored a point in the 1st half.
It was decided much earlier than that.
It was decided for USC on December 22, 2011.
USC not winning not being anywhere near the National Championship discussion was decided that day.
USC finishing outside the Polls was decided that day.
USC losing the Pac-12, and also the Pac-12 South Division was decided that day.
What happened that day?
Matt Barkley and USC held a press conference where he announced with a sneaky smile, he was returning for one more year because they had "unfinished business."

After that moment, USC was only doomed to fall hard and fall dramatically.
There's something that's not always talked about in sports and especially college football.
Humility has a place in sports and there is a power in possessing it.
It starts in who you recruit and how you recruit them. It's off the field, in the halls and rooms before teams ever take the field. Then it continues with game preparation and finally with how you play the game.
It's effects are seen in the number of penalties a team gets, in how they handle a loss, in how they handle their plans being disrupted.

Humility is about shutting your mouth and working. Never thinking you're better than any team, no matter a rivalry or a team like Western Carolina. Humility is putting your head down and working. It's never in any words you can ever say.

USC lost before the season ever started. With those two words and that sly smile, Barkley was continuing a tradition at USC that's been hounding them for decades; pride. That tradition used to exist at the likes of Notre Dame, Alabama, and every other school with a winning tradition. But this year, what's separating the teams with any sort of pride and the ones that are winning: a humility that comes from shutting your mouth and going to work. Where are Notre Dame and Alabama now?

Year in and year out, what wins? The talent that USC obviously has or the work ethic the likes of which Jim Mora has brought to Westwood? This year it was clear.

What it took to beat Alabama

The four "toughest" teams (besides LSU) Alabama has faced all year have been very similar. They are either spread teams or have a dual threat quarterback. And each time Alabama faced them, there was talk of upset alert. But the Crimson Tide stayed the course, ground them out, didn't let things get wild and forced mistakes.
Until this week.

Alabama did that in the beginning with Michigan. They contained Denard, forced him to make mistakes and just weakened the Wolverines down.
Tennessee has a great offense, with some good speed. But they pressured the quarterback and made him made mistakes.
Mississippi State. Bama just burst the bubble on their perfect season. The Bulldogs were a paper tiger.

Then Johnny came marching in. Spread team. Quick. Dual-Threat Quarterback. Scrappy underdogs.
One thing had been holding the Aggies back even since last year. Playing horrible in the second half.
But this game was different.
They got out to an early lead. Which they are apt to do.
They played pretty good defense.
But then in the second half, Bama started to creep back up.
Texas A&M missed a field goal in the 4th quarter, that was a portent for doom.
Alabama was given the chance twice to come back. But Texas A&M not only shut Alabama down with defense, they scored again in the 4th quarter. They actually scored in the 4th quarter. Unheard of for a Texas A&M team.

Best game since the Boise State-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl. Maybe.

So it begs the question. Did Texas A&M pull a huge upset, or is Alabama actually not that good?

I never thought the Crimson Tide were the number 1 team. (That's Oregon.)
In the beginning it just seemed like all of college football was down this year, like really down. But then Oregon emerged, and Kansas State. And Alabama still seemed like the best defense. But they weren't playing anybody. Until LSU, and they looked really vulnerable. They probably provided Texas A&M with some good film to use.

My assessment. Alabama probably has the most disciplined team and the best defense. And they're getting a lot better on offense. I think they're the number 3 team ahead of Notre Dame.

Oregon obviously has the best offense and Kansas State could be the best coached team right now. Neither of these teams make mistakes. That stems from coaching. Johnny Football made Alabama make mistakes finally. So when the going got tough, Alabama folded and made mistakes. Do the math.

A few predictions:

Johhny Manziel will win the Heisman within the next two years.
Texas A&M will win the SEC within the next two years.
Texas A&M will go to the BCS game within the next two years.
Kevin Sumlin becomes the new Pete Carroll and despite being in College Station and not LA, the Aggies become the new "it" team of the 2010's.

Why The Coaches Poll Is Poop

Awesome and crazy weekend for college football. None more exciting of course than....San Diego State's win on the blue turf over Boise State!!!!
Also, wild finishes in the Notre Dame-Pitt game, huge scores in the Oregon-USC game and a game I'm sure no one cared about in Alabama's last minute come from behind victory over LSU in Death Valley.

There was not much change at the top. Even though a couple games were close, the top 4 teams beat who they were supposed to, and there weren't any major upsets. Except the Aztecs defying the odds and delivering the Broncos to one of their very few loses on their home field.

But it's easy to get the rankings right at the top when the top teams win. But it's the rest of the rankings that concerns me and why the Coaches Poll is ridiculous. Here's a few examples:

1. Boise State - They were somehow ranked 14 last week. Which, if anyone has seen or knows anything about this team this year, they should not have been ranked so high. They are struggling and trying to re-build. I know if a team keeps winning they usually rise in the polls, but this team was barely getting by and it finally showed in the loss to SDSU. So it begs the question, why is Boise State still ranked at all?

2. How did Louisiana-Monroe get 4 votes? - ULM was on the fringe of getting any votes. They've been winning over their Sun Belt compatriots, teams like 2-7 Florida Atlantic and 2-7 South Alabama. To be fair, the Sun Belt seems better than normal with already 4 bowl eligible teams so far in the league. But they just lost to Louisiana-Lafayette. So, if ULM was on the fringe as is, and they lost, who is still ranking the War Hawks in their rankings? Is there 1 coach ranking them 22nd, or are there four coaches ranking them 25th? I would love to see these coaches individual rankings. Because these are supposed to be the brilliant college football minds, so they must be seeing things in all the free time they have to watch all the games happening.

3. Who has seen enough of Middle Tennessee? - These guys have a decent team this year. But here's some highlights from the year so far. They lost 45-3 to Miss State. Their other FBS lost was to Louisiana-Monroe, a team that obviously should still be getting votes. Oh and the only FCS loss they have of the year, a loss to McNeese State of the Southland Conference. McNeese State must be the best FCS school in the country. Nope, not even in their conference, they're currently in 5th place in the Southland Conference. Who is giving Middle Tennessee votes in their rankings?

4. Another Odd Choice for a Team receiving votes - Tulsa has been having a decent year. They had a pretty good few years under coach Todd Graham, and now it seems like Bill Blankenship is keeping that going. But they haven't been having a year where they should be ranked in the Top 25. Their most impressive win was over Fresno State. This week they played Arkansas close, but lost. Who is still giving them 4 votes after a loss to Arkansas? Are other C-USA coaches giving them the votes? Is there a problem with that? Is that bias or does that mean, the other C-USA coaches can see things other people can't? Either way that's not an accurate picture, and proof that the Coach's Poll is extremely flawed.

I don't know if it's confirmed or not if the Coach's Poll will continue after the BCS changes, but that selection committee can't seem to come soon enough.

Sloppy Play Leads to Losses and Near Defeats

What started as what seemed a very mediocre season has turned into the story of two types of teams in college football: the Disciplined Alabama's/Oregon's/K-State's/Notre Dame's versus the sloppy South Carolina's/USC's/Texas'/ and now we can add to that list the Florida's of college football. This week showed that divide clearly.

Example 1. South Carolina vs Tennessee
Pretty fair match up. Tennessee is a very talented team. But they're still young, and Derek Dooley despite wearing bright orange pants, hasn't laid a foundation yet that's really solid. South Carolina, it seemed, was going to ride smooth on the foundation Spurrier has laid over the last few years. They had a healthy Lattimore, they had a respectable and well behaved QB finally, and their defense was finally an SEC defense. The Gamecocks proved against Georgia they can play well and decisively. But they have never shown they can be consistent. They got shut down by LSU, a team on paper they could have beaten, and now they barely escaped the Volunteers. Their sloppiness came on defense. The Vols made a lot of big plays. Over and over SC kept blowing assignments, leaving Tennessee receivers wide open. Midway through the game, after a Volunteer touchdown where a receiver was wide open, I said out loud, Tennessee is going to win this game. I was wrong, the Gamecocks held in there, but probably only because Tennessee doesn't have the ability to play great offense all the time. The SEC is the league not only of defense, but consistency, which leads to the next game.

Example 2. Florida vs Georgia
I said going into this game it was kind of a toss up. Georgia has far more talent than Florida, but Florida is far better coached. Mark Richt has brought in some great offensive and defensive talent, but they've been squandered over the last few years due to bad coaching and development. On the other hand, Will Muschamp is barely getting started on his team building. All he has as a new coach is discipline, which will lead to better coaching and ultimately the development of better players. And already we've seen this year, Muschamp has the ability to take pretty good talent and coach them well, with solid wins over LSU and Texas A&M.
Georgia showed early in the season that they do have lots of ability and great playmakers on both sides. But as off season trouble usually shows, they were not being held together as a well coached team. But all it takes is a game where the better coached team starts playing sloppy to pounce. Which is what happened against Florida. Six turnovers. You can't win with that amount of turnovers, except you might come close against Georgia. The Bulldogs played tough defense, they held it in the trenches, didn't allow big plays and forced turnovers. If Georgia played like that every week, they'd be ranked number two instead of where Florida was. But, as the rankings are showing, it takes a disciplined team to stay in the top 10. Which leads to the next game.

Example 3. USC vs Arizona
First we had a sloppy defense in SC v Tenn, then we had a usually sloppy team play great against a sloppy offense in Florida vs Georgia. Now we have all those examples in one team. The USC Trojans. Maybe it's a carry over from the Pete Carroll era, where talent trumped everything else, but that seems to be the norm in the Lane Kiffin era. All season long, we've seen USC's stellar offense. Barkley, Woods and Lee are the best QB and receiver trio in the country. (Maybe West Virginia could rival that) And the running game has been pretty handy to balance that out. And it seemed the Trojan defense was finally good enough to give USC a solid chance of competing on the big stage. But as with the Florida-Georgia debate, what's more important Talent or Better Coaching, we're seeing in Southern California, they keep losing because of bad coaching.
In Tucson the USC defense was slow, they seemed lost at times, they let the Wildcats make way too many big plays, including some horrific blown assignments. This is an Arizona team that scored zero points against Oregon. Oregon at least let Colorado score 14 in the 2nd half. And the hard part to watch was that Arizona wasn't even playing that great. USC was allowing them big plays and time for Matt Scott to make plays. Then when they'd get the ball back USC didn't take advantage.
Prime example of the difference pre-season rankings can be to reality. Look at the other number 1, Alabama. Lost a lot of guys on defense, didn't have to most stellar offense. How are they the number 1 team still? They are extremely disciplined. The coaching is keeping them focused, which leads to consistency and with good coaching and consistency you're going to develop your players into better athletes. We're seeing that in Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame. All teams with the same recipe. In fact, we can even see that in the other undefeated team Louisville. Charlie Strong has a pretty talented team, but he's winning in teaching fundamentals, discipline and consistency.

Two Point Conversion! Can SDSU win the Mountain West?

That's right, it is possible for San Diego State to win the Mountain West.
With their huge upset win over Nevada, the path is set. They need to win their last four games (all conference games) and hope Nevada beats Fresno State. That four game stretch includes the almighty Boise State Broncos in Boise. A tall order, but not impossible. Nevada was the best team in the conference and the Aztecs just beat them without their starting QB for 3 quarters.

Can SDSU beat Boise State? Last year, no way. This year, maybe and even possibly. Boise State has struggled at times on both sides of the ball, but mainly their offense as been slow to get going. They barely beat New Mexico, the losingest team in college football over the last decade, and has had a couple of other closer than liked games. SDSU has been playing pretty sound defense. They just kept the nation's leading rusher to 108 yards. San Diego State is going to have to play their usual defense and new QB Dingwell is going to have to pass efficiently. Boise State has some decent defensive numbers, though, so the game could come down to whose defense is sounder.

Winning the Mountain West will be a nice send off to the Big East.

Go Aztecs!

Midway Point Notes and This Week's Upset Alerts

One midseason regret so far: I have to eat crow on the Longhorns. I put my chips in their corner to do great things this season but they fell flat on their faces and their defense is mainly to blame. They came into the season with high hopes and have just about lost everything to play for. Except pride. And a lot of that is gone after a thumping by Oklahoma.
They're playing Baylor this week, one of the best offenses in the Big 12, and in my opinion the country. It could be the week Texas bounces back. But this is an in-state rivalry game and I think Baylor will beat the Longhorns for the 2nd year in a row.

Another dissapointment: BYU. They were so set to be a BCS buster this year. Riley Nelson seemed like he was ready to lead the team and get the offense together. But it hasn't happened.
Their defense has been playing lights out, but after a dismantling by Oregon State, even that can't be entirely true.
They play another stout defense this week in Notre Dame, their Catholic Brothers, and Notre Dame is probably trying to stay awake and not sleep this week. They've heard the noise about this being a trap game and for their sakes they better treat this game like any other. The real question going into this; who has the better offense. Probably Notre Dame, but not by much.

Two Big SEC Upset Alerts for this week.

The first is with newcomer and upstart Texas A&M. Their offense has seemed to gel around Johhny Manziel. He can pass, he can throw. The Aggies have started putting up big offensive numbers. Of course, LSU may have the best defense in the country. Texas A&M hasn't played a defense like this since Florida, but they've grown a lot since then. Johnny Football is a true freshman, so that says a lot.
LSU also hasn't played an offense like this yet. The Tigers have been coasting by, and I don't think their win over South Carolina was a walk in the park. They had to play better that day and they forced the Gamecocks to make mistakes. I think, in order for LSU to win they have to do the same thing. Get Manziel off balance, force him into mistakes and capitalize. The Aggies should hope to score early and not let the Tigers wear them down, like Florida did.

And the other game: an old SEC rivalry that hasn't had much pizazz the last few years. Tennessee versus Alabama. Just like LSU, Bama hasn't faced an offense as good as this yet. They have the best defense in the country, but we seem to forget their defense is still young. If the Vols strike quickly, with Alabama's slightly weak secondary, they could carry this game into the fourth quarter and then we'll really see if Bama can go for all four quarters. As any rivalry game, anything can happen. A few years back, it took a blocked field goal for Bama to escape and keep it's perfect record alive. If the Vols man up on defense, and play their usual offensive self, they can keep this close. And in close games in the end, it's usually who can make the bigger plays. Tyler Bray is the type of player that can make those plays.

First End of the Year Prediction

Boston College will fire it's coach Frank Spaziani.
Why?

BC just lost to ARMY!!!! Army. Probably the worst Army team since who knows. Probably the worst team in the FBS.

Here's what Spaziani has done in the last few years. Since he's been head coach in 2009, he has a 21-23 record.
Before that BC went to the ACC Championship in 2007 and 2008. The Eagles also had great defenses in those years. From 2001 to 2009 BC consistently ranked in the top of FBS defenses. (They were 5th Nationally in total defense in 2008!) Why? Spaziani was the Defensive coordinator.
Since he's been head coach?
BC hasn't gotten more than 5 wins in the ACC.
Last year they slipped to 70th in Defense and 112th in Total Offense. (109th in 2010 and 98th in 2009)


He's been obviously slipping every year. He's being criticized for taking a Boston College team that had been on the rise thru the 00's. Now...they're at the bottom of the ACC (the ACC for crying out loud) and losing to Army.

Great defensive coordinator. Not a great head coach.

How Texas can beat West Virginia

I made some grand statements regarding Texas' team this year, and this week I've come close to withdrawing them. Why?
Because West Virginia put up 70 points on Baylor and they play Texas this week.
The numbers were awe-inspiring. Geno Smith was "amazing" and "fantastic"....yadda yadda. Yes, that game was as amazing as watching a pick-up flag football game in the park where you have 1 guy rushing the QB and 10 guys running around the open field. I literally fell asleep in the 4th quarter.
When I woke up FX was already on to the next broadcast. How can your offense be amazing with no defense against you?
Before I fell asleep, I shook my head quite a few times at Baylor's defense. They made too many mistakes to count. Far too many times they left receivers wide open. And they never had pressure on Smith, at all. He was able to move freely and have as much time as he needed. Bad ingredients for stopping a talented spread offense.
If you watched the game, you could see the determination and struggle of the Baylor offense to get points on the board. They didn't score as many points, but they played better that day than West Virginia because the Mountaineers weren't giving them so many "gimmes". West Viriginia's defense was not good, but they weren't openly making mistakes, Baylor had to work to earn points. (I use the word work lightly.) Nick Florence's numbers were almost as amazing as Smith's, when you consider that, and by themselves they do look pretty good. Plus, he has an amazing beard, almost as good as the Mountaineer mascot himself.

So...obviously West Virginia is not a fluke. They can score. They do it with great receivers running great routes, speed and Geno Smith who has multiple tools. They also run the ball pretty well. Texas isn't going to have their speed, but they aren't slouches either. Baylor couldn't pressure the passer, that's something Texas can do. They also can't make coverage mistakes. Big plays for West Virginia are BIG PLAYS. Ask Baylor. Ask Clemson. You give them some room and they take it to the house.

The biggest thing, and the only thing we can glean from the Baylor game that they did right(albeit only on offense), is you have to play them tough. Stanford against USC tough. Washington against Stanford tough. Maryland against West Virginia tough. LSU against West Virginia tough. If Baylor had just one ounce more of toughness on defense, that game may have been reversed. That sounds generic, but this season more than recent years, physicality has returned to being so important. There's a reason why the SEC is the best conference, and why LSU and Bama played for the title last year. The last real spread team to win the BCS was Florida, and they played tough, it wasn't just throw the ball and be fast.

If they get to the passer, like LSU did (Smith passed for a school record that night and they still were beat hard.), Texas will disrupt the Mountaineers whole game. Their air attack is like a high wire act, if you get them off balance the whole thing comes crashing down.

Arkansas and Wisconsin...

Arkansas and Wisconsin both have something big in common. And a few small things in common.
It isn't the players. Arkansas returned several key starters including what was the SEC's best QB in Tyler Wilson and one the best running backs in Kniles Davis.
Wisconsin on the other hand lost their QB to the draft and a number of their offensive and defensive starters. They did return one key player in Montee Ball, a Heisman finalist.
Both teams were picked to do quite well this year. The Badgers were not only picked to win the Big 10, they were picked to breeze right to the top of their division with Penn State and Ohio State being inelgible. This was supposed to be the year the Hogs finally win the Western Division of the SEC.

But what happened in the off-season is what has effected both of these schools so much.
Coach Turnover!

We talk so much about the 4 year, cyclical nature of college and the loss of talent to graduation and the draft. What's not talked about as much is the importance of a coaching staff.

It was pretty clear and apparent when Arkansas lost their coach. And when a coach is fired or leaves it's a big deal usually. But the effects on a coach leaving can last for years, maybe even a decade sometimes. Bobby Petrino's departure left a big stain on the program, which is why John L. Smith was brought in to sort of clean it up and keep the ship afloat. But even with the whole fiasco, the media still liked Arkansas' chances because so much talent was coming back. They put little stock into the coaching change.

Another story that was reported minorly in the off-season was 6 coaches leaving Wisconsin for other jobs. There didn't seem to be anything weird going on, each coach left for respectable jobs, and the team was on a roll of consistently wining. (Just not in the Rose Bowl.) Now that Wisconsin is struggling, the media has brought up the story again, as a reason for their struggles. But with Wisconsin it was supposed to be the same story as Arkansas; so much talent was coming back and they had the Heisman finalist Ball returning and another transferring senior like Russell Wilson.

The big story is how important chemistry and continuity is towards a team winning, not on the field, but on the sidelines and in the booth. The co-ordinators are the ones working hands on with the players every day. They're the ones with the working, daily relationships with every one on their side of the team. When you lose a co-ordinator, you're oftentimes losing the coach some of the players had the closest relationships with, and the most trust. You also lose the recruiting bond those coaches and players may have had. A new co-ordinator means having to re-build all of that, having to re-build chemistry, having to re-establish recruiting ties; it's bigger than losing a few players to the draft.

One interesting side not is the irony of a winning program. A winning program means people are doing their jobs well. When people do their jobs well, they tend to either move up or move on to bigger things.(Pete Carroll's last year at USC was a big struggle partly because he lost his offensive and defensive coordinators.) So winning forms good chemistry, which should beget more winning....but oftentimes it creates more struggle when the coaching staff has to re-build. An interesting added cycle to the sport that is built on a cyclical nature.

Why the Huskies Win Matters

"Go You Huskies"

Thanks for proving a point I almost made in the first half of the Arizona-Oregon game.
That point being, in the Pac-12 this year it seems like any team is decent enough(or good enough) to win against any other conference team.
Obviously, Arizona's embarrassing loss proves nothing and shows that fact is contrary, but for the first half of that game it really looked like the Wildcats were in it.

But that's not the important game. The Stanford-Washington game is the important one, and besides showing the point that the Pac-12 has a lot of depth across the conference, it shows one other big fact this year that is helpful all across college football.....How tough you play usually equals who wins.

Washington played Stanford's football. They played them tough on both sides and didn't quit. Stanford is clearly the bigger and more athletic team. Just look at how much they pressured Keith Price.

But as Stanford showed against USC, and UW showed against Stanford.....and what the Big 10 is failing at, is playing tough as nails in tackling and on the line.

The most interesting game this week in the Pac-12.....Oregon State vs Arizona.

Weak 5

This might be a lackluster week. Game Day is in East Lansing of all places for a Big 10 game between a barely ranked team and a team that can't play in the postseason. But what's being overlooked?

Two big games in the Big 12!

With all the hoopla ESPN made over Missouri and Texas A&M's first SEC games, no one is caring about West Virginia's first Big 12 game. Sure, it's Baylor, but this is a really interesting matchup.
There might be a hundred points scored! But it's the first time we get to see West Virginia's explosive offense take on one of the Big 12's big time offensive teams.

The Mountaineers are going to win. Baylor is pretty good, but not great. The only way they can win is if their defense somehow steps up. It'll be a fun game to watch, and will shed some light on how well West Virginia fits in their new league.

And speaking of fitting in the Big 12.....who is the team that looks more like an SEC team now? Texas? They are the best team no one is talking about. And they're playing the best defense of any team in the conference. So good, they could be the team that stops West Virginia from rolling over everyone.

But....they play a well coached offensive powerhouse in Oklahoma State this week. The Cowboys have been a little back and forth, absolutely annihilating pee wee squads, then losing to Arizona.
I personally don't think Oklahoma State can match up to Texas' defense. I think the Cowboys might get embarrassed by what seems like an impeccable Longhorn squad. But......this is the Big 12, the conference where #1 Oklahoma can lose to Texas Tech and #2 OK State can lose to Iowa State.

Ole Miss-Alabama

Going out on a huge limb here. Huge.
I think Alabama needs to be very careful this weekend, and be on upset alert.

Ole Miss might hang in there and surprise the Crimson Tide.
In a close game, the SEC can have wild results. (LSU sneaked by a very pedestrian Auburn team last week.)

The evidence on Ole Miss is shaky. They've been running the ball very well, and shut out Tulane. They're 3-1, beating some low level teams, but doing it in great fashion.
The anomaly is the Texas game, where they got blown out. Texas has the best defense in the Big 12 and finally has it back together on offense. (Texas could be a sleeper team that surprises a lot of people this year.)

But this Saturday, it's an SEC Divisional Game. Anything can happen.
And with teams on the fringe like Ole Miss, being a spoiler is what they can most look forward to.

.....

I'm not putting money on it, but Ole Miss-Alabama could be very interesting.

First Post!

Just for funsies I thought I'd start a blog about College Football, since I watch more college football during the Fall than movies.
To start, here are my favorite teams and the reason why I follow them.


San Diego State - I'm an alum.

USC - Lifelong fan. I'm from Southern California.

BYU - I'm a Mormon. And I now live in Provo, so I can root for the hometown team now.

Nebraska - I went on my mission there. They were the enemy at the time(Cornhuskers is the official religion of the state.), now they're family.

Iowa - I also served my mission in Iowa. I like them, but cringe too much to follow all the time.

Other teams of Interest that I'm not a "fan" of, but like to see succeed:

Boise State - I've been following them since the season of their Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. Still the best football game I've ever seen.

South Carolina - The SC of the south. I know Spurrier is a douche, but I like him as a coach.

PAC 12 - regional pride. I like to see the local conference succeed. That means I even root for UCLA on occasion.